Top Farmer Mid-Day Update June 3, 2019


Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher in early trade this morning, stabilizing after Friday’s relatively weak close. Jul corn is up 1-3/4 cents to 4.28-3/4, Sep corn is up 1-3/4 to 4.27-3/4, and new crop Dec corn is up 2 cents to 4.45-3/4. Some pressure was seen overnight and early this morning as some rain forecasted over the weekend did not materialize and there was talk of some planting progress. Still, the market is looking for planting progress to come in this afternoon somewhere between 68% and 72% complete. That would still leave around 27 mil acres left to plant with prevent plant estimates around 7 to 10 mil acres. The U.S. shipped just under 1.1 mil tons of corn for the week ending May 23 vs 840,000 tons the previous week and 1.7 mil tons the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running over 500,000 tons ahead of last marketing year’s pace. Funds sold 15,000 contracts of corn on Friday and are thought to be net long about 28,000 contracts.


 Soybean futures are trading moderately higher today, with Jul beans up 7-3/4 cents to 8.85-1/2, Sep beans are up 7-3/4 cents to 8.99-1/2, and new crop Nov soybeans are up 8 cents to 9.12-3/4. Traders are looking for soybean planting progress to come in between 40% and 45% complete this afternoon. With ample time before soybean prevent plant dates, most are not too concerned about bean plantings at this point, but some extended forecasts are hinting at more wet weather down the road. The U.S. shipped 533,000 tons of beans for the week ending May 23 vs 498,000 tons last week, and 581,000 the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running nearly 13,000 tons behind last year’s pace. The U.S./China trade dispute does not look to be resolving itself anytime soon despite talk that Trump and Xi will be meeting at the G20 Summit this month. Funds sold 5,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday and are thought to be net short about 103,000 contracts.


Wheat markets are sharply higher this morning, moving again through some nearby resistance levels. Jul Chi wheat is up 15-1/2 cents to 5.18-1/2, Jul KC wheat is up 18-3/4 cents to 4.91-3/4, and Jul spring wheat is up 9-1/2 cents to 5.61-1/2. Rains are seen in the 5-day forecast for KS, OK, and west Texas which should support the hard red winter wheat contracts. In addition, some of the major wheat growing areas in China are expected to see heavy rains. Dry weather in the Black Sea is also supportive. Today’s surge is especially impressive considering recent trade tensions with Mexico. Mexico is the number one buyer of U.S. wheat, so excess rains recently are showing serious potential for quality impact. The U.S. shipped 494,000 tons of wheat for the week ending May 23 vs 839,000 tons last week, and 446,000 this same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running 664,000 tons ahead of last year’s pace. Funds sold 6,000 contracts of Chi wheat last week and are thought to be net short about 26,000 contracts.


Cattle markets are mixed to mostly lower this morning, so far failing to bounce from Friday’s technical breakdown. Jun lives are down 77 cents to 107.70, Aug lives are down 2 cents to 103.05, and Oct lives are down 32 cents to 103.57. Aug feeders are up 10 cents to 133.22, and Sep feeders are down 15 cents to 133.92. Trade attentions with Mexico are a negative factor as Mexico is the third ranked buyer of U.S. beef. Stock market weakness and poor spring weather have also been pressure points as well. Despite the lower trade today, Friday’s lows have been held so far. Prices are oversold, but there is little sign of any technical bounce underway thus far.


Hog markets are mixed this morning, consolidating near the lows from last week. Jun hogs are up 37 cents to 82.10, Jul hogs are up 42 cents to 86.35, and Aug hogs are down 20 cents to 86.42. Cash fundamentals have been mixed lately with pork prices choppy to higher and cash hog values slipping lower. Yesterday’s follow through nearby support levels was disappointing technically, but prices are oversold and may be trying to stabilize. Deteriorating trade relationships with China and Mexico are both bearish factors.



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