TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE REPORT DIRECTORY 2-19-19

6:00 a.m. SUNRISE Update for grains and livestock
Noon MID-DAY Update for grains and livestock
6 a.m. SALES TIMER for grains and livestock
4 p.m. MARKETPLACE OVERVIEW/chart
4 p.m. CORN analysis/outlook/advice/chart
4 p.m. SOYBEANS analysis/outlook/advice/chart
4 p.m. WHEAT analysis/outlook/advice/chart
4 p.m. CATTLE analysis/outlook/advice/chart
4 p.m. LEAN HOG analysis/outlook/advice/chart
4 p.m. OTHER AGRICULTURAL MARKET strategies
4 p.m. ADVANCED OPTION STRATEGIES hedge and speculative trades
TOP FARMER WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE
CASH TRACKER
Disclaimer

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Sales Timer

PERCENT YEARS PRICES RALLIED (2009 to 2018)

From 2/19/19            1wk     2wk     1mo     2mo     3mo 
 
CORN (Jul)              6       7       6       5       5 
Historical data indicates slightly firmer over the next  
30 days. 
 
SOYBEANS (Jul)          6       5       6       6       6 
Historical data indicates sideways. 
 
SOYMEAL (Jul)           7       6       6       7       8 
Historical data indicates firmer over the next week, then 
again two months from now. 
 
WHEAT (Jul)             4       5       4       2       4 
Historical data indicates sideways the next 30 days, then 
lower two months from now. 
 
LEAN HOGS (Jun)         5       5       3       2       5 
Historical data indicates sideways, then lower 30 days from 
now. 
 
LIVE CATTLE (Jun)       3       5       6       6       4 
Historical data indicates lower the next week, then sideways. 
 
DAIRY (Jun)             2       4       4       4       6  
Historical data indicates lower the next week, then sideways.
 

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Marketplace Overview/Chart

Contributed by: John Heinberg

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

Lean hog futures tumbled in today’s trade, as April through August futures finished 3.00 limit down, and the April contract posted a new contract low. Last week, hog futures looked to be building a short-term bottom after prices have fallen approximately $13.50 off November highs. Unfortunately, U.S. pork production is still running at a record pace, and the availably of slaughter animals will make it difficult for prices to maintain any near-term rallies. In addition, weakness continues in retail pork prices, and carcass values have eroded over the past few weeks. Despite news regarding more issues with African Swine fever in China and its neighboring countries, the prospects of reduced demand also weigh in the market as Chinese consumers are cautious of buying pork products, and product recalls due to contamination from AFS only enforce this pattern. In the short-term, global pork prices and demand will be an issue. Long-term, the impact of AFS will likely be more impactful. Currently, hog futures are still searching for a bottom as the supply side of the equation stays bearish.

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Corn Analysis/Outlook/Advice/Chart

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

CORN HIGHLIGHTS: Corn futures lost ground today, finishing 3-1/2 to 5 cents lower with Mar leading today’s drop, finishing at 3.69-3/4. New crop Dec closed 2-1/2 lower at 3.96-3/4. Weaker soybeans and a big drop-off in wheat prices seemed to be enough to keep corn prices on the defensive, which had traded higher in the overnight hours. Technical formations are looking iffy, with prices reaching their lowest level and closing at their lowest level since November. The negative reversal posted on 2/8, the release of the much anticipated USDA report, has had prices on the defensive since. While yield did drop more than most were looking for by 2-1/2 bushels per acre, a reduction in feed and ethanol usage may have spurred end user to take a more passive approach. Today’s slide was partly due to technicals, as prices fell below last week’s low and may have uncovered sell stop orders.

SUMMARY: There wasn’t much news in the marketplace, and what was, seemed to be negatively slanted, in particular with soybeans and wheat. Export inspections at 37.1 were considered supportive. Year-to-date inspections are 951.5 million, up 45% from last year. Keep grinding sales out if behind. For now, we are comfortable with current positions.CORN PRICING STRATEGY:

HEDGING: 2018: Aside. Recently, 10% hedged from 4.19 Dec and 10% from 3.84-1/4 were exited near 3.73-3/4. In addition, 10% hedged from 4.07-1/4 was exited near 3.86-1/2. 2019: 20% hedged Dec 19, 10% hedged from 4.18-1/4 and 10% from 3.96-1/4. Hold.

CASH: 2018: 75% sold. Sell 5% if Mar futures trade above 3.94. 2019: 25% sold. Get current if you are behind. Sell 5% if Dec trades above 4.15. 2020: Sold 10% Dec on 1/30/19 when it traded above 4.15. Sell 10% if Dec 2020 futures trade above 4.30.

OPTIONS: 2018: On 25%, sold May 4.00 corn calls and sold May 3.80 corn puts for a combined premium of 20 cents. Hold. On 15%, sold Jul 3.80 corn puts and Jul 4.20 corn calls for a combined premium of 20 cents. Hold. 2019: On 25%, purchased 1 Dec 4.00 corn put at 24-1/2 cents and sold 2 Dec 4.50 corn calls at 12-1/4 cents each. On 25%, sell Dec 5.00 calls for 15 cents.

LEGEND of Moving Averages: Pink 10-day, Purple 20-day, Green 50-day, Red 100-day, Dark Blue 200-day 

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Soybean Analysis/Outlook/Advice/Chart

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS: Soybean futures were under pressure throughout the session and finished with losses of 6-1/4 to 7 cents, as May led today’s drop. Mar lost 6-3/4, closing at 9.00-3/4, off the low of 8.94-3/4. Today’s low was the lowest level since mid-January. Prices managed to slide under a critical trend line, but clawed back above by the close. Techncials continue to look soft in soybeans. South American news offers little support, as weather is considered conducive. Elsewhere, additional African swine fever in China and lackluster demand for hog consumption could weigh on China’s overall use of soybeans and soymeal. The close of new crop Nov under 9.50 was the lowest close since mid-January, with support in place at the 100-day moving average. Considering how weak beans looked at one point today, even though they did finish lower (unlike the wheat and corn markets) beans finished toward the middle of their daily trading range.

SUMMARY: Export inspections were solid at just under 38 million, but cumulative export inspections year-to-date are still running about 35% below a year ago, which is well below the USDA’s estimate for an 11% reduction. While the market seems to be holding together well, it also looks like it is one day away from looking incredibly week. Be sure to get current with recommendations if you are behind. There is not enough uncertainty in South American weather to suggest otherwise.SOYBEAN PRICING STRATEGY:

HEDGING ALERT: 2018: Aside. 2019: Aside. Hedge 25% on a close below 9.44.

CASH: 2018: 85% sold. Hold. 2019: 20% sold: 10% from 10.05 and 10% from 9.50. On 10%, sell if Nov futures trade above 9.75. Sell 10% if Nov 19 trades above 10.00. Sell 10% if Nov 19 trades above 10.25. 2020: Sell 10% if Nov 2020 futures trade above 10.00.

OPTIONS: 2018: On 25%, sold Jul 10.00 bean calls at 16 cents. Exit if Jul soybeans close above 10.00. On 25%, sold Mar 9.60 calls at 12 cents. Hold. LTD is 2/22/19. At this time, expect to expire without value. 2019: No recommendations yet.

LEGEND of Moving Averages: Pink 10-day, Purple 20-day, Green 50-day, Red 100-day, Dark Blue 200-day 

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Wheat Analysis/Outlook/Advice/Chart

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat futures had another rough session with sharp losses of 14-3/4 May Chi to 16-1/4 May KC and 17-1/2 lower in Mar Mpls. Declining world wheat prices and a poor technical picture with prices slicing into new lows today, uncovering sell stops, all added to today’s losses. Over the last eight sessions, front month Chi has lost over 35 cents. It is said that Ukrainian, Russian and French wheat values are all down hard and cutting into U.S. export potential. We have argued all year that we expect export business to pick up, and instead, we are seeing prices come down elsewhere and cutting into our potential. This could change quickly, and the market could be violent. Right now, a somewhat unexpected turn for wheat prices is the world not trying to aggressively purchase wheat and instead seems to be buying just in time inventories at the cheapest market, waiting it out as values weaken. Export inspections at 13 million were a disappointment.

SUMMARY: Wheat futures are having a difficult time to find much footing as U.S. prices are struggling versus our competitor due to a stronger dollar and weaker foreign currencies. The market is extremely oversold.WHEAT PRICING STRATEGY:

HEDGING: 2018: Aside. 2019: 25% hedged Jul Chi from 5.31. Hold. Exit on a close above 5.50.

CASH: 2018: 85% sold. Sell 5% if Mar Chi trades above 5.40. 2019: 40% sold. 2020: Sell 10% if Jul Chi 2020 trades above 6.00.OPTIONS ALERT: 2018: On 25%, sell May 6.00 wheat calls at 10 cents. Cancel this order tomorrow, as it is unlikely to get filled. Recently, on 20%, sold Dec 6.50 calls at 15 cents expired without value in your favor. On 25%, sold Dec 5.00 puts for 15 cents were bought back at 2 cents. 2019: On 20%, sold Jul 5.50 calls at 40 cents.

LEGEND of Moving Averages: Pink 10-day, Purple 20-day, Green 50-day, Red 100-day, Dark Blue 200-day 

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Cattle Analysis/Outlook/Advice/Chart

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

CATTLE HIGHLIGHTS: Cattle markets had a strong start to this short week, with the live cattle futures markets extending their rallies. The nearby Feb live cattle contract closed 1.25 higher to 127.87, Apr closed 1.27 higher to 128.45, and Jun closed 52 cents higher to 118.60. Mar feeders were up 1.15 to 143.75, and Apr feeders were up 77 to 146.00. Choice beef values closed 54 cents higher on Monday afternoon to 217.39 and were up another 87 cents this morning to 218.26. Select beef was up 2.01 at yesterday’s close to 213.00, and jumped another 1.74 this morning to 214.74. The strength in beef values was the largest source of support today. However, with a narrowing choice/select spread, be warned that this is not as supportive as higher quality cuts gaining in relation to the lower quality cuts. The Jan Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday afternoon. The market is expecting a marketings number at 99.7%, a placements number at 101.4% and on feed at 102.2%. The best traded Apr live cattle contract made its highest close yet. Prices still have yet to break through the highs made on the day of the bearish key reversal, but the trend is still higher. Jun futures took out their contract highs today on the way to a new higher close as well.

SUMMARY: While live cattle futures appear to be overextending their rallies, expectations for poor feedlot conditions, as well as a higher trend in the cash trade, may keep things supported. Defend profitable levels.CATTLE PRICING STRATEGY:

HEDGING:
Live Cattle: Jun: Hedged 25% at 116.12. Aug: Hedged 25% at 112.60.
Feeder Cattle: Mar: Hedged 25% at 143.30. Apr: Hedged 25% at 144.27.

CASH:
Live Cattle: Move only market-ready animals. 
Feeder Cattle: Sellers: Stay current. Buyers: Purchased 25% of needs for Q1 of 2019.

OPTIONS ALERT:
Live Cattle: Apr: On 25%, sold 128 calls at 2.15 and bought 122 puts at 4.27. On 25%, sold 129 calls at 1.32 and bought 124 puts at 3.40. On 25%, bought 125 puts at 2.30. Jun: On 25%, bought 117 puts at 2.35.
Feeder Cattle: Aside.

FEED PURCHASE: 2018: 100% covered. 9/5/2017: Purchased 50% of 2018 needs. 12/4/2017: Purchased 25% of 2018 needs. 6/19/2018: The remaining 25% of feed needs for 2018 purchased. 2019: 50% covered. 6/19/18: purchased 25% of 2019 needs. 9/21/18: purchased 25% of 2019 needs.

LEGEND of Moving Averages: Pink 10-day, Purple 20-day, Green 50-day, Red 100-day, Dark Blue 200-day

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Lean Hog Analysis/Outlook/Advice/Chart

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

LEAN HOG HIGHLIGHTS: Hog futures began the week with an extremely negative day, with all contract months out to August, finishing the day limit lower. Apr hogs closed at 56.52, Jun hogs closed at 73.72, and Jul hogs closed at 77.02. Carcass cutout values were down 1.45 yesterday afternoon to 61.58 and were down another 56 cents today to 61.02. This is the lowest carcass value since late 2009. Production last week came in 5.7% ahead of last year’s pace despite expectations for an increase of only 2-3% above last year’s pace. African swine fever in China has stifled a large amount of demand. ASF contaminate pork has been sold by eleven different brands in China, and while this is not harmful to people, a large animal breeding group has asked people to not buy pork products to avoid spreading ASF through kitchen waste to more farms. Pork consumption in the northern regions of China had declined 20% from the fourth quarter of 2018. Apr futures made new contract lows today, and the Jun contract month made new lows for the move. Jul futures are still above near term lows. The Jul contract does have a double bottom formation at 76.15, which may hold some support. Near term direction looks lower due to heavy supplies domestically and a lack of foreign demand.

SUMMARY: Hog markets tomorrow will have expanded limits due to today’s limit lower closes. African swine is currently hurting demand in China, though could still be a major mover later on if a trade deal is struck between the Chinese and the U.S.HOG PRICING STRATEGY:

HEDGING: 2019: Apr: Hedged 25% at 60.90. Jun: Hedged 25% at 80.17. Jul: Hedged 25% at 80.45. Aug: Hedged 25% at 79.30.

CASH: Stay current. Jun: Forward contracted 50% of expected market-ready animals for June on Friday. Jul: Forward contracted 50% of expected market-ready animals for Jul on Friday. Aug: Forward contracted 50% of market-ready animals for August on Friday.

OPTIONS: Apr: On 25%, bought 63.00 puts at 2.67. Jun: On 25%, bought 82.00 calls at 3.50.FEED PURCHASE: 2018: 100% covered. 9/5/2017: Purchased 50% of 2018 needs. 12/4/2017: Purchased 25% of 2018 needs. 6/19/2018: The remaining 25% of feed needs for 2018 purchased. 2019: 50% covered. 6/19/18: purchased 25% of 2019 needs. 9/21/18: purchased 25% of 2019 needs.

LEGEND of Moving Averages: Pink 10-day, Purple 20-day, Green 50-day, Red 100-day, Dark Blue 200-day

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Other Agricultural Market Strategies

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

Cotton

HEDGING: 2018: Aside. Recently, 40% hedged Dec: 10% from 69.55, 10% from 67.41, 10% from 76.99 and 10% from 87.77 Dec were exited at 80.11. 2019: 10% hedged from 87.75 Dec 2019. Hold.

CASH ALERT: 2018: Sell 10% tomorrow, Wednesday 2/20/19. That will put you at 80% sold: Sell 10% if Mar trades above 84 cents. 10% from 72.70, 10% from 69.65, 10% from 75, 10% from 80, and 10% from 89.85. 10% sold from 86.81. 10% sold from 78.52. 2019: 30% sold. Recently, sold 10% at 76.69, 10% from 75 cents Dec and 10% from 80 cents Dec. Sell 10% if Dec 19 trades above 83 cents.

OPTIONS: 2018: On 25%, sold Mar 83 cent calls for 1.75 expired without value. Recently, on 25% Dec, long 90.00 puts from 5.50 were sold at 13.62. Short 95.00 calls on 25% from 2.00 expired without value in your favor.2019: Aside.

Milk

HEDGING: 2019: Hedged 25% of expected production Feb through Jun at an average price of 15.25. Hold.

CASH: Aside.

OPTIONS ALERT: Feb: On 25%, sell 15.00 calls at 20 cents. Cancel this order tomorrow, as it is unlikely to get hit. Mar: on 25%, sell 15.75 calls at 25 cents.

FEED PURCHASE: 2019: 50% covered: 6/19/2018: Purchased 25% of all feed needs for 2019. 9/20/2018: 25% purchased for 2019 feed needs. We are considering adding another purchase.

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Advanced Options Strategies

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM
800-TOPFARMER

Position ALERT:    Sell Apr live cattle 130 calls for 1.00 or better. 
Date entered:       
Exit Strategy:     Exit if Apr cattle close above 135.  
Rationale:         Hedger: Collect premium or willingness to be hedged at 130 
                   and collect premium. 
                   Speculator: Collect premium. 
 
Position:          Sold Jul wheat 5.00 puts near 12 cents and purchased Jul 5.50 calls near 
                   20-3/8. 
Date entered:      2/5/19 
Exit Strategy:     None at this time. 
Rationale:         Hedger: Collect premium on short put or willingness to retain ownership of  
                   sold wheat at the 5.10 strike and have fixed risk reownership at 5.50 strike 
                   on Jul futures. 
                   Speculator: Establish long position.

Call 800-TOPFARMER for further details on how to implement this strategy for your operation.

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Weekly Perspective (updated every Friday)

2/15/19

CHALLENGING WEATHER

For the most part, Midwest weather conditions in December and January were mild. Many livestock producers enjoyed temperatures that remained stable; not too cold, not too warm, and not too wet. However, recent fluctuations of more than 70 degrees over the last two weeks with snow and rain have raised havoc for livestock production. Record cold followed by unseasonably warm temperatures is not a good recipe for animal health, especially during the winter months.

Wild swings in temperature may bring the biggest concern to the dairy industry. Small calves are most vulnerable and subject to pneumonia. The old saying is when it rains, it pours. This year, you could say when it rains, it makes for messy barnyards and muddy feedlots. What does it all mean? For the livestock producer, it means more cost and less production. The loss of calves is likely, and the cost of taking care of sick animals is a financial burden. The severe cold also limited hauling of market-ready animals, resulting in more feed consumption.

From the corn producer perspective, it does potentially mean more demand. Livestock burns a lot of calories when fighting weather. Weight gain is often limited for cattle in feedlots, as they struggle to stay alive. Sometimes cattle lose weight in adverse weather situations. One or two days of additional feed usage may eventually surface on the USDA’s monthly supply and demand estimates in the form of tightening carryout.

While recent weather fluctuations have been significant, many row crop producers have been mostly immune, due to the time of year. However, winter wheat producers have concerns, as limited snow cover leaves the crop vulnerable to cold weather, and that could have an adverse impact on production. Last fall’s less-than-ideal weather made it difficult for field preparation and fertilizer application. As spring approaches, corn and soybean farmers will need to get an early start to make up for the time they lost last fall. And a wet spring could be disastrous. Delivering enough fertilizer to farmers in a short window of time could be a logistical nightmare. Get ready for potential fireworks in corn prices.

Continuously low commodity prices in recent years have challenged farmers. The exception may be the cattle market, which has experienced improving prices. However, expectations for increased supplies could turn prices lower. Prepare yourself for anything. Watch for price rallies and be ready to defend increases by using the right tool at the right time. For some, this may be forward contracting and others simply buying a put option. If using futures to hedge, understand that margin calls could be a good problem. It could mean you have additional selling opportunities for unpriced product. Spend time with your lender this winter, establishing a line of credit. This will prepare you to market into (what could be) more volatile markets with confidence and cash flow to back up your positions.If you have questions or comments, contact Top Farmer at 1-800-TOP-FARM Ext 129.

line

Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading is substantial. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE – Cash Tracker

February 19, 2019 4:00 PM 
800-TOPFARMER

CORN 2014-2015                           CORN 2015-2016 
DATE         %    FUTURES                DATE         %    FUTURES 
 
01/02/14    10    4.58                   04/09/14    10    5.00 
02/28/14    10    4.70                   05/15/14     5    4.83-1/4 
04/01/14    10    5.00                   11/12/14     5    4.25 
04/21/14    10    4.90                   03/13/15    10    4.04-3/4 
08/15/14     5    3.75                   05/01/15     5    3.83-1/2 
09/11/14     5    3.41                   05/26/15     5    3.73-1/4 
10/09/14     5    3.45                   06/30/15    10    4.25 
10/28/14     5    3.70                   09/16/15     5    3.90 
11/04/14     5    3.64-1/2               12/03/15     5    3.75 
11/13/14     5    4.00                   01/07/16     5    3.53 
03/13/15     5    3.74                   01/29/16     5    3.69 
03/25/15     5    3.95-1/4               02/24/16     5    3.59-3/4 
04/22/15     5    3.75                   04/12/16     5    3.65 
06/25/15     5    3.75                   04/15/16     5    3.75 
09/08/15    10    3.55                   04/21/16     5    4.00 
                                         07/26/16     5    3.32-1/2 
                                         08/23/13     5    3.28-1/2 
                                         
Total      100%                          Total      100%   
 
 
CORN 2016-2017                           CORN 2017-2018 
DATE         %    FUTURES                DATE          %    FUTURES 
 
05/21/15    10    4.00                   09/08/16     10    3.75 
06/01/16    10    4.15                   02/15/17     10    4.00 
06/06/16    10    4.25                   07/25/17     10    3.82-1/4 
06/15/16     5    4.48                   08/02/17      5    3.81 
06/21/16    10    4.09                   09/19/17      5    3.48-1/4 
09/06/16     5    3.30                   11/14/17      5    3.37-1/2 
12/16/16     5    3.56-1/4               12/27/17      5    3.53-3/4 
01/11/17     5    3.57-1/4               01/29/18     10    3.75 
02/14/17     5    3.74-1/4               02/07/18     10    3.65 
05/09/17     5    3.60                   03/08/18      5    3.90 
05/17/17     5    3.70                   04/16/18      5    3.82-1/2 
06/06/17     5    3.75                   06/12/18      5    3.70     
07/24/17     5    3.75-1/2               07/10/18      5    3.51 
08/02/17     5    3.67                   07/26/18      5    3.60 
08/17/17    10    3.52                   08/20/18      5    3.62 
 
Total      100%                          Total       100% 
 
 
CORN 2018-2019                           CORN 2019-2020 
DATE         %    FUTURES                DATE         %     FUTURES 
 
08/22/17    10    4.02                   05/03/18    10     4.20 
11/17/17    10    3.85                   06/12/18    10     4.07 
05/01/18    10    4.20                   10/08/18     5     4.00 
05/24/18     5    4.29 
06/14/18     5    3.84-1/2 
07/10/18     5    3.64-1/2 
07/23/18     5    3.70 
10/11/18     5    3.68 
10/15/18     5    3.75 
11/30/18     5    3.65 
12/20/18     5    3.75-1/4 
02-11-19     5    3.74-1/2 
 
Total       75%                          Total       25% 
 
 
CORN 2020-2021 
DATE         %    FUTURES 
 
01/30/19    10    4.15 
 
Total       10%  
 
 
SOYBEANS 2014-2015                       SOYBEANS 2015-2016          
DATE         %   FUTURES                 DATE          %   FUTURES 
 
07/26/13    10   12.00-3/4               5/23/14      10   12.25 
12/31/13     5   11.46-1/2               6/11/14      10   11.94  
03/14/14    10   11.74-1/2               10/01/14      5    9.33 
04/01/14    10   12.00                   11/10/14      5   10.30                
05/05/14     5   12.24                   11/20/14      5    9.95                  
05/20/14     5   12.50                   03/04/15      5    9.72-3/4 
09/10/14     5    9.95-1/2               04/15/15      5    9.50 
10/01/14     5    9.07                   06/25/15      5    9.75 
10/20/14     5    9.44                   06/26/15      5   10.00 
10/28/14     5   10.15                   06/30/15      5   10.25 
11/04/14     5   10.10                   08/07/15      5   10.00 
12/2/14      5    9.95-3/4               12/04/15     10    9.00        
01/08/15     5   10.48-1/4               01/29/16      5    8.70 
02/24/15     5   10.05                   03/17/16      5    9.00  
03/16/15     5    9.74                   04/05/16      5    9.04-34 
06/26/15     5   10.00                   05/23/16      5   10.58-1/2 
07/16/15     5   10.19                   06/01/16      5   11.00      
 
Total      100%                          Total       100% 
 
 
SOYBEANS 2016-2017                      SOYBEANS 2017-2018 
DATE         %     FUTURES               DATE         %     FUTURES 
 
07/14/15    10     9.75                  06/21/16    10     9.75 
02/05/16    10     8.85                  11/28/16    10    10.25 
03/24/16     5     9.17                  12/20/16    10     9.96-3/4 
03/28/16     5     9.25                  06/20/17     5     9.38-3/4 
04/05/16     5     9.19-1/2              08/01/17    10     9.74 
04/13/16    10     9.50                  08/28/17     5     9.50 
05/06/16     5    10.00                  09/28/17     5     9.59-1/2  
06/22/16     5    11.16-3/4              10/24/17     5     9.75-1/2 
07/22/16     5     9.88-1/4              11/13/17     5     9.63-1/2 
09/20/16     5     9.90                  11/27/17     5    10.00 
11/01/16     5     9.84-1/4              12/05/17     5    10.25 
11/21/16     5    10.05                  02/05/18     5     9.75 
01/18/17     5    10.75                  03/09/18     5    10.39-1/4 
02/14/17     5    10.45                  03/20/18     5    10.23-3/4 
05/10/17     5     9.75                  08/22/18    10     8.58-1/4 
07/26/17     5     9.76 
08/01/17     5     9.59-1/2 
Total      100%                          Total      100% 
 
SOYBEANS 2018-2019                       SOYBEANS 2019-2020 
DATE         %     FUTURES               DATE         %     FUTURES 
 
07/17/17    10    10.00                  04/11/18    10     10.05 
11/17/17    10    10.00                  12/03/18    10      9.50 
12/07/17     5    10.05-1/4 
02/20/18    10    10.25  
03/09/18     5    10.30 
04/04/18     5    10.19 
04/16/18     5    10.40-1/2 
10/15/18     5     8.75 
11/02/18     5     9.00 
11/26/18     5     8.62-1/4 
12/03/18     5     9.10 
12/20/18     5     8.93-1/2 
01/10/19     5     9.06-3/4 
02/12/19     5     9.05-1/2 
 
Total       85%                          Total      20% 
 
 
WHEAT 2015-2016                          WHEAT 2016-2017 
DATE         %    FUTURES                DATE         %    FUTURES 
 
03/13/14    10    7.00                   03/20-15    10    5.65 
04/08/14    10    7.17                   06/30/15    10    6.00 
05/15/14    10    7.22-1/4               09/28/15    10    5.25 
12/08/14     5    6.00                   04/19/16     5    4.85 
12/18/14     5    6.50                   04/20/16     5    5.00 
01/08/15    10    5.76-3/4               05/03/16    10    4.70 
05/18/15     5    5.11                   06/08/16     5    5.15 
06/22/15     5    4.95                   06/14/16    10    4.91 
07/17/15     5    5.54                   10/14/16    10    4.25     
09/08/15     5    4.75                   01/09/17     5    4.25 
10/08/15     5    5.11-1/2               02/13/17     5    4.50 
01/29/16     5    4.72                   02/24/17    10    4.31-1/4 
04/06/16    10    4.63                   05/01/17     5    4.40 
04/19/16    10    4.80 
 
TOTAL      100%                          TOTAL      100% 
 
WHEAT 2017-2018                          WHEAT 2018-2019   
DATE         %    FUTURES                DATE         %    FUTURES 
 
04/20/16    10    5.50                   03/24/17    20     5.00 
06/07/16    10    5.75                   06/29/17     5     5.40 
01/17/17     5    4.65                   07/03/17    10     5.75  
02/13/17     5    4.75                   12/12/17     5     4.37-1/4 
02/27/17    10    4.53-1/4               02/09/18    10     4.74-3/4 
03/08/17     5    4.62-3/4               03/15/18    10     4.96 
03/14/17     5    4.45                   05/07/18    10     5.17 
06/26/17     5    4.59-1/4               06/06/18    10     5.25 
07/10/17     5    5.40                   12/26/18     5     5.16 
07/11/17     5    6.00 
07/18/17    10    5.15 
12/12/17     5    4.10-3/4                
01/29/17     5    4.45 
02/06/18     5    4.41 
03/05/18    10    5.02-1/4 
 
TOTAL      100%                         TOTAL      85% 
 
WHEAT 2019-2020   
DATE         %    FUTURES 
 
01/26/18     10   5.15 
02/06/18     10   5.25 
06/19/18     10   5.67-1/2 
08/02/18    10    6.00  
 
TOTAL        40%
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TOP FARMER INTELLIGENCE DISCLAIMER

*** Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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