CORN

Corn futures were mixed overnight, though favoring a bearish sentiment after last week’s collapse.  Dec corn traded a range between 3.50-1/4 and 3.47-1/2 while getting within a penny of the new contract low at 3.46-3/4.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money net short just over 100,000 corn contracts as of Tuesday, March 31.  Crude is flat this morning.  The stock index futures are 800 points higher which will provide some influence to grains, as will Weekly Export Inspections later this morning.  The demand tone is weak in the front month corn contract which is reflected in the National Corn Index, but the corn market tried to muster some support from spillover strength in the crude oil market in Friday’s trade and the energy markets as a whole may be trying to post a bottom.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures were down 3 to 4 cents overnight as demand concerns and global competition for exports keep pressure on front month contracts.  The Brazilian currency is firm this morning, but did drop to a new record low overnight, thus creating headwinds from a global export perspective.  May and July soy charts closed weak in Friday’s trade and seem to be attracting some additional long liquidation.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money having gone from net short to net long 23,230 bean contracts as of Tuesday, March 31.  They were also reported to be net long 49,619 soybean meal contracts, and net short 5,353 lots of soyoil.  Bottom line, the short term trend looks lower in the entire bean complex to begin the week.

WHEAT

Wheat futures are higher this morning after posting a late-week recovery from a corrective down move.  May Chi wheat is up 11-1/4 cents to 5.60-1/2 as global wheat prices remain firm, bringing support to the US market.  There have been reports that many nations are considering restrictions on the amount of grain to exported, similar to the second quarter quotas that Russia and Kazakhstan have enacted.  Overnight, May KC wheat advanced 12-1/2 cents to 4.84-1/2; And, May Mpls is up 7 to 5.31-1/2.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed managed money net long 35,971 Chicago wheat contracts, 2,447 KC wheat; And, net short  13,445 Minneapolis wheat as of Tuesday, March 31.

CATTLE

Live cattle futures are called lower as news headlines surrounding Covid-19 hammer markets.  One news story from Agcenter.com reports, “Beef plants are regarded as essential industries and the nation’s commitment to keeping the food supply chain open and functioning is critical. The Mayor of Grand Island, Nebraska announced the positive test for COVID-19 on 10 employees of the JBS beef plant.  This follows reports of isolated cases at other plants in the U.S. and Canada.”  Demand concerns and lack of cash bids weighed on cattle futures last week and a strong drop in retail prices brought carry over weakness into the cash market.  Prices broke to contract lows and remain vulnerable to additional selling pressure and chart are technically weak. Nearby April live cattle, which enters First Notice Day today, sits at a new low of 88.32.  June live cattle hit a new low of 78.82 which compares to last week’s cash trade near $112.50/cwt.

HOGS

Lean hog futures are called lower.  Strong selling pressure throughout last week paints continued weakness, technically and leaves the market vulnerable to follow through selling pressure.  June hogs closed down the 4.50 expanded limit to 48.32 on Friday to a new contract low compared to the cash market at 64.46.   Demand concerns and building pork supplies make it difficult for price to find much traction.  Retail prices trended lower during the week last week reflecting the demand concerns.

Author

Kelly Rubisch