TFM Sunrise Update June 6, 2019


Corn futures plunged yesterday after a poor finish on Tuesday following supportive news on Monday afternoon. Prices were unchanged overnight. Better plating progress and a dryer forecast for the next 7 days, concerns over tariffs with Mexico, and word of importing corn from Brazil all had negative impact on prices the last two sessions. Today we’ll get Weekly Export Sales numbers with trade estimates running in the 500,000 to 800,000 ton range on old crop; 50,000 to 250,000 tons for new crop.


Soybean futures were down 5 to 6 cents overnight in a bid to close a gap left on the daily bean chart from the price hike last week. In addition, positive news is eluding the market as growers, though stuggling to get their crop planted this year, set sights on planting program changes as fields dry out. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 500,000 tons for old crop; 50,000 to 250,000 tons for new crop.


Wheat futures were up 5 to 6 cents overnight following a very poor technical showing on Tuesday highlighted by bearish chart reversals in the winter wheat markets followed by selling Wednesday and a close below the 10-day moving average, something that has not occurred for three weeks. The move was triggered by improved crop ratings on Monday afternoon when the market was looking for a decline. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are (100,000) to 200,000 tons for old crop; 100,000 to 400,000 tons for new crop.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer. Prices firmed a bit yesterday gaining 30 to 75. For now though, demand is still not strong enough to pull prices out of the recent selloff. We believe that will change with better summer weather and an increase in the grilling season.


Hog futures are called mixed. Prices were jumpy again yesterday and with Jun trading below the cash index we wouldn’t be surprised a move to narrow that margin by seeing cash soften by the end of the week or Jun pick up 1.00.



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