TFM Sunrise Update June 5, 2019


Corn futures were down overnight. After trading near recent highs yesterday, prices closed poorly and saw follow-through weakness overnight on talk of U.S. corn imports aiding a potentially weak supply situation stemming from a bad planting 2019 season. A wire story reports grain traders are selling Brazilian corn to Smithfield Foods Inc in the United States where wet weather has reduced plantings. Dec corn slid 10-1/2 cents to 4.33-1/2. However, although planting progress has picked up substantially in parts of the Midwest this week, we feel that on June 5 there are just too many acres to plant and too many wet spots that the market will need to factor in prevent plant as well as a drag on yield. We’re not sure if the 4.50 area has this factored in on new crop corn, thus we expect volatility to continue.


Soybean futures were lower overnight with Nov beans down 5-1/2 cents to 9.03-3/4. Prices continue to hold together well, though with small gains yesterday at 3 cents noted. However, prices have run into resistance on the 100-day moving average and on prospects for better planting weather throughout parts of the Midwest. The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has been showing different forecasts lately with now close to average rainfall being seen for the Plains and Midwest—temps are looking at average to above average in the Plains and average in the Midwest.


Wheat futures posted a very negative looking bearish key reversal yesterday and were down double-digits overnight. Jul Chi wheat was down 13 to 4.94-1/4; Jul KC down 16-1/2 to 4.52; and, Sep Mpls down 10 to 5.60. Crop ratings did not decline as anticipated on Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Ratings report and a bearish signal was triggered as a result. Lower row crops overnight added pressure.


Cattle futures posted an encouraging positive session yesterday. There was no technical activity that jumped out as anything other than an up day. However, the feeder market had a good run yesterday and may be trying to tell the marketplace that feeders are undervalued, in particular with corn prices stalling.


Hog futures are called mixed. Prices ended the day mixed yesterday with Jun down 45 and Jul up 1.27. The spread between Jun and Jul continues to widen as expectations that recent demand will continue to create more of a tighter pipeline in the mid to late summer window.



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