TFM Sunrise Update June 17, 2019


Corn futures gapped higher last night and put in new contract highs while factoring in adverse weather conditions and short supply scenarios. Dec rose 9-1/2 cents to 4.71 and looks to be targeting $5.00 per bushel after gaining almost 30 cents last week alone. Nearby Jul corn traded as much as 11-1/4 cents higher to 4.64-1/4. Weekly Export Inspections will be out this morning followed by Weekly Crop Ratings after the close. Traders are expecting planting progress to show 89% to 92% of the crop planted which would leave about 7.4 million acres unplanted.


Soybean futures also gapped to new highs for the move on gains of 17 cents. Nov beans hit their highest point since May 4 at 9.40-1/2 with heavy rains limiting field work and hindering crop progress. Traders are looking for this afternoon’s weekly update to show 79% to 83% of this year’s bean crop seeded and weekend rains put progress on hold for a number of key states. NOPA crush numbers will be out today with estimates averaging 162.05 mil bu, up from last month, but down from 163.67 mil bu a year ago.


Wheat futures traded 9 to 10 cents higher to 5.47-1/2 in Jul Chi wheat, 4.85-3/4 in Jul KC. Strength in row crops is seen lending support to wheat and the market had a strong technical move with solid gains each day last week. Chi wheat gained 34 cents last week, KC 27-1/4. Though technically overbought, excessive moisture in SRW wheat states will continue to spark talk of quality issues and keep prices supported to start the week.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Undetermined cash prices at the start of this week and a rather sluggish tone would suggest prices trade sideways. Live reported prices ranged from $110-116 late last week with sales in all regions well under previous weeks. One factor is carcass weights have not seasonally begun to rise as normally expected in May. The trend may continue due to the heavy discount in the August live cattle contract causing marketing plans to move forward to avoid a price currently $10 under the current cash. The period between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July is generally a strong period for beef consumption, but a cool rainy spring has slowed beef demand.


Hog futures are called mixed to weaker. Prices continue to struggle on supply numbers. Although export sales picked up this year, the trend remains down as the marketplace doesn’t seem to feel the world is going to come knocking down the door to the U.S. to pick up pork inventory.



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