TFM Sunrise Update July 1, 2019


Corn futures were firm overnight in a slight technical bounce off of Friday’s lower closed on the heels of a surprisingly negative acreage number. This will continue to hang over the market today. Yet, there is much skepticism and a recount in July by the USDA will provide a more accurate number in August. Warmer conditions, meanwhile, will help green-up the crop and likely aid in crop ratings. We’ll get latest update this afternoon, Weekly Export Inspections this morning and a day off on Thursday in observance of the Fourth of July. Weekend weather featured much needed heat and drying conditions in most areas. The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has close to average precip and average to slightly below average temps across the region over the next 10 days. The Southern U.S. Plains will have hit and miss rainfall mostly in the east over the next 6 days; rainfall will increase over the weekend and early next week—-temps will be running average to a bit below. Dec corn is at 4.33 with Friday’s session low and the 40-day moving average at 4.26 serving as technical support.


Soybean futures traded more than 10 cents higher overnight before stalling, underpinned by what are viewed as positive developments at the G-20 summit where President Trump met with the Chinese. Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping had promised to buy “tremendous” amounts of U.S. agricultural products in exchange for easing restrictions on most prominent technology company. In addition, both the stocks and acreage numbers were supportive on Friday and the market reacted as such. However, the 10 cent gain in a market that saw acreage drop near 5 mil and stocks 66 mil was not much of a gain.


Wheat futures were flat to 3 cents lower overnight and are called mixed to lower today. A very negative looking technical reversal pressured prices on Friday. The All Acreage and Stocks reports were uneventful, but the market moved lower regardless. The Northern U.S. Plains looks to have close to average precip over the next 10 days—-temps will be running average to a bit below average over the period.


Cattle futures continued to show consolidation. However, a poor close on Friday suggests mixed to weaker today with the June contract now in the books. The cash trade was not fully reported late Friday but live sales were reported in the south at $109/cwt or a dollar weaker than the prior week. The northern sales were at $111-112 live with most dressed sales at $180.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower on follow through after a weak finish on Friday and weak end-of-the-week close. The market looks to be carving out a bottom on the charts and positive vibes from the G-20 summit should support a move higher if support holds. Farmers and agricultural groups welcomed the U.S.-China trade truce but many said they still need a comprehensive agreement to restore large-scale exports of U.S. crops and meat to lift the fragile farm economy.



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