TFM Sunrise Update 9-18-19


Corn futures were firm overnight after trading lower on Tuesday on good weather and lack of follow-through buying. We’ll look for consolidation as the market begins to trend sideways in the wake of non-threatening weather including warm temperature readings which is good for crop maturity. No frost is in the forecast at least through the end of the month. Dec corn, up 1-1/2 cents overnight, is finding a home near the 3.70 price level.


Bean futures were up overnight, posting gains of 1 to 3 cents. Expectations for good weather and renewed sales to China suggests bean prices continue to remain choppy but most likely on a defensive bias after a strong rally last week. The recent price strength has pushed stochastics into a technically overbought situation which should be a signal to technical traders that prices are overbought and may be running into resistance. Nov beans, at 8.95-1/2 see first resistance at 8.99-1/2 and then  9.05-1/2.


Wheat futures edged higher overnight, gaining 2 to 3 cents in the winter wheats, steady in spring wheat. Both winter wheat contracts had a defensive day yesterday with the recent strength in the dollar putting exerting some outside market pressure, but are in a short-term up-trend that is going to include some down days as is typical when positive news takes a day off here and there. Delays to harvesting spring wheat are evident in the major producing states. North Dakota is at is at 73%, Montana 69% and Minnesota 83%, according to the latest USDA Weekly update.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow through after a good technical day yesterday in which prices reached the highest level in 10 sessions as Oct closed at 99.35, up 1.35. A potential inverted head and shoulders formation has continued to point upward as well as prices technically may try and fill a gap that was left in mid-August after a fire in a Tyson plant in KS. A wide spread between choice and select of over 20.00 continues to suggest feed lots are relatively current.


Hog futures are called mixed. The volatile ways in the hog market continue with limit down yesterday on a Dec contract. We’ll look for choppy trade today with a bias for lower based on yesterday’s trade activity. A longer-term perspective suggests increasing hog export activity could provide underlying support and keep the near term uptrend in tact.


Kelly Rubisch

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