TFM Sunrise Update 9-12-2019


Corn futures were firm overnight in light volume as the trade awaits the September USDA Supply/Demand report due out at 11:00 AM today. Dec was up 2 to 3.62 while trading a dime off of the contract low. The trade is expecting a yield decrease of about 3 bushels to the acre to around 166.5. Ending stocks are expected to be cut, too, to an average guess of 13.551, a 350 million drop from last month. Weekly Export Sales will come out at 7:30 AM.


Soybean futures were higher overnight with Nov beans up 6 cents to 8.72-1/2. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States has agreed to delay increasing tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 “as a gesture of good will. Trump said the postponement came “at the request of the Vice Premier of China, Liu He, and due to the fact that the People’s Republic of China will be celebrating their 70th Anniversary.” The tariffs were set to increase to 30% from 25% on the goods. The delay could enable talks to take place before the tariffs kicked in. Look for USDA to trim yield in today’s report to 47.1 BPA from the August estimate of 48.5.


Wheat futures were firm overnight with Chi Dec wheat up 2-1/2 to 4.80; Dec KC up 1-1/2 to 4.00; and Dec Mpls up 2-1/2 to 5.04-1/4. No big changes are expected in today’s USDA data. For now, a revival in the greenback is providing some headwinds for wheat.


Cattle futures should see some choppy, to firmer action this morning after this week’s rally pushed prices back into the markets’ previous trading ranges. Cash trade is expected to become more defined today and tomorrow. Though cattle traders are cautious over demand prospects from China, no one wants to be caught short the market amid the possibility of immediate action.


Hog futures have been very erratic as of late and are called steady to lower after failing to maintain any semblance of traction following recent declines. It was an inside trading day yesterday and prices did manage to close well off their lows. However, momentum studies still look weak and could accelerate a move lower if support levels are breached.


Ryan Mainville

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