TFM Sunrise Update 6-16-20


Corn futures traded 3-1/2 cents higher overnight after USDA said weekly crop ratings slipped 4 percentage points from last week in the good-to-excellent categories to 71%. The market was expecting a 1 to 2 percent rise.  The large supply picture and outlook for good weather over the near term is seen as reason for Managed Money to stay short corn and limit rally potential.  Weekly Ethanol Stats are slated for tomorrow, Exports on Thursday.


Soybean futures were up 2-1/2 cents overnight and remain mired in the midst of a seven-day consolidation.  Crop ratings stayed unchanged week over week at 72% good-to-excellent.  Expectations were for ratings to rise 1 to 2 percent.  Meanwhile, Chinese demand stays active while supporting prices with another announced sale of 14.3 million bushels of soybeans for the 2020-21 marketing year on Monday morning.  Weather forecast will still be the key going forward.


Winter wheat futures were firm overnight with Chi wheat up a penny; And, KC up 3.  Daily stochastics are declining into oversold territory suggesting the selling may be drying  up.  The prospect of improved U.S. short-term demand, driven by the weaker dollar is supportive, but offset by an uptick in the harvest pace and overall bearish global supply tone.


Live cattle futures are called mixed, though the trend in futures is tilting more positive aided, in part by equity markets.  Prices did recover from Monday morning weakness, and historical trends are for firmness in front month contracts.  However, pressure from weak retail values and a decline in the cash market trends keep selling pressure present in the market.  Cash trade is undeveloped for the start of the week, but indications are softer trade from last week.


Lean hog futures are called steady to lower after July hogs fell to the lowest level since April 23rd on Monday and failed to attract new buying interest.  Carcass retail values remain weak which will keep pressure on front month contracts.  Overall cash weakness and large slaughter supplies are noted, too.  The slaughter pace ran much stronger last week, which will be key to getting the hog market more current with backed up supplies of slaughter hogs.


Matthew Strelow

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