CORN

Corn futures were firm overnight, trading in the upper portion of Wednesday’s ranges ahead of this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales and late-week frost warnings out for emerged corn plants. . Significant dryness for Brazil’s Safrinha crop is also a source of support.  Trade estimates are 600,000 to 1.10 mil tons for old crop, 100,000 to 400,000 tons for new crop.  Yesterday’s Weekly ethanol statistics improved, but a full recovery is a long way away.  Weekly ethanol stock piles decreased and corn usage for ethanol was at 61 mil bu, a three-week high.   The trend in corn has flattened, but is still lower heading into next week’s USDA supply/demand report on May 12.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans, meal and oil were up overnight.  Nov beans gained 5-1/2 cents to 8.44-3/4 while respecting the contract’s weak 10-day moving average.  Beans were unable to hold early support yesterday and finished weaker as trade tensions with China reignited following comments by Secretary of State Pompeo.  In addition, the bottom fell out of the Brazilian real overnight and a new 1-1/2 week high was posted in the greenback.  Trade estimates for today’s exports are 600,000 to 1.10 mil tons for old crop, 100,000 to 300,000 tons for new crop.

WHEAT

Wheat futures rebounded overnight after being stuck in consolidation mode the past two trading sessions.  Rains across Europe and Black Sea Region are seen improving crop conditions, but more is needed.  Meanwhile, dry conditions across the southern plains and a slower than anticipated spring wheat planting pace is supportive.  Weekly export sales are expected to come in between 50,000 and 300,000 tons for 2019-20 wheat; And, 100,000 to 350,000 tons for 2020-21 amid a rising U.S. dollar that makes U.S. exports less desirable on the world market.  July Chi, KC and Mpls wheat were up 7 cents overnight.

CATTLE

Live cattle futures are called steady to higher.  Limit higher closes on Wednesday expand the daily limits for today and will likely bring additional follow through buying on rumors of a packers bidding up for cash cattle trade.  Retail values remain strong while reaching record levels nine straight day, and June’s discount to cash is still supportive of the cattle markets.  Another positive feature for the trade is the June live cattle’s sustained closes this week above the 40-day moving average, turning the trend higher in the short-term.

HOGS

Lean hog futures are called mixed. Strong retail values stay supportive in the hog market.  The technical picture is higher and may find spillover support from strength in cattle market.  Hogs are overbought which would support a pull-back if reversal action occurs, particularly with IA and MN hogs for slaughter reaching record weights topping 290 pounds.  However, today’s export sales and shipment numbers for pork, which has been on an aggressive pace in 2020, should help maintain market strength.

Author

Lisa Heder