TFM Sunrise Update 2-11-20


Corn futures were down a penny overnight as the dollar index continues to rally. We’ll look for the market to remain flat until the release of the 11:00 USDA Supply and Demand report as the trade digests reports that Chinese officials have told the U.S. they will meet their Phase One Ag purchase target after delays. Pre-report estimates suggest few, if any changes to carryout which is projected at 1.856 billion for 2019/20. The 2018/19 carryout was 2.221 billion.


Soybean futures were firm overnight with contracts hovering near yesterday’s fresh 1-1/2 week highs on gains of a penny. Projected U.S. carryout on average is 448 million but the range of estimates is wide from 586 on the high end to 320 million bushels. Projected world carryout is estimated at 97.2 million metric tonnes with a range of 103 million to 94.2 million metric tonnes. The January estimate was 96.7 million metric tonnes.


Wheat futures were steady overnight after a turbulent start to the week. Look for two-sided trade until 11:00, when the USDA provides more direction for prices when it releases its monthly supply and demand estimates. Projected world carryout is 287.2 million metric tonnes and this would be in line with the January estimate of 288.1 million. U.S. carryout is projected at 953 million bushels as compared to the January estimate of 965 million.


Cattle futures are called steady to weaker on follow through at their sluggish close yesterday with prices finishing at their lowest level since October on Apr futures. Last week’s low on Apr at 118.35 held with yesterday’s low at 118.47. Undefined cash will likely keep pressure on prices near term. If the market can hold, it will suggest that a recovery to near 124.00 is likely. On the other hand, this is a critical technical area and if prices break this level a potential move to 116.00 is probable.


Hog futures are called steady to lower after disappointing trade yesterday in which prices finished at or near the low of the day for most futures contracts. Feb, trading discount to the cash hog index should help provide underlying support.


Carol Tillmann

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