TFM Sunrise Update 2-10-2020


Corn futures were down 4 cents overnight, erasing Friday’s rally spurred, in part by stronger-than-expected export sales and Brazil’s delayed harvest that is also delaying second crop corn planting. Last week’s reversal upward was minor but supportive. Look for sideways trade to continue into tomorrow’s mid-day release of USDA’s latest monthly Supply/Demand report when the market gets more news. Weekly Export Inspections will come out mid-morning today.


Soybean futures were up 1 to 2 cents overnight, narrowly edging out Friday’s intra-day highs. Prices reversed upward last week but are still in a steep near term-downtrend highlighted by a large South American bean crop, weak currency (real) and uncertainty over future Chinese soy purchases. Look for more sideways consolidation into tomorrow’s report. For now, traders see ending stocks coming in near 443 mil bu within a forecast range of 320 to 520 mil. Meal is also firm this morning suggesting last week’s bullish key reversal on the charts signifies a bottom to that market.


Wheat futures were flat overnight and are called steady to firmer today after prices reversed upward Friday. Expect tomorrow’s USDA report to show a slight reduction to world projected supplies. Meanwhile, forecasts for active rainfall in the Plains this month and a strong dollar create buyer resistance in the market moving forward.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Last week’s sales in the south were mainly at $121/cwt live, $1/cwt lower than the previous week.  Northern cattle brought $121-123/cwt live and mostly $193-194 dressed. Last week’s futures prices indicated consolidation, and that is how we will start the week. The market remains oversold and vulnerable to a technical bounce, but traders remain concerned about demand will be stagnant amid a slowdown in restaurant and travel business.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower on expectations for little new news to provide support today. Daily price momentum is on the rise from lowered levels and should accelerate a push higher if last week’s gap higher holds on the charts. Chinese prices are high enough and U.S. supply large enough and U.S. price low enough to expect active sales ahead.


Lisa Heder

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates