TFM Sunrise Update 12-31-19


TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours. Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 CT; there will be no Top Farmer Intelligence report.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed.


Corn futures are called mixed for today ahead of the day off tomorrow. Corn was down a penny overnight, unable to sustain modest gains in Monday’s lightly traded session. Prices appear supported in general, particularly with the dollar plummeting to the currency’s lowest level since August overnight and Phase One with China on the brink of coming to fruition. Yet, yet new friendly news will be needed soon to move prices upward. Grain markets have normal trade hours today, but no night session tonight.


Soybean futures were off slightly overnight, slumping 1 to 2 cents. The technical picture looks very supportive after yesterday’s strong gains that negated a bearish close on Friday. Volatility is increasing which could signal that prices are nearing a top. However, news that China’s Vie Premier Liu He is traveling to the U.S. to sign a “Phase One” this week, and reports that the Chinese ministry has approved a new GMO soybean crop for imports from the U.S. is seen as a positive for the bean complex. Keep in mind that First Notice Day for January futures was is now past so deliveries can be imposed on traders holding long Jan futures contracts.


Wheat futures were firm overnight as the dollar plunges to a multi-month low. These markets have been showing volatility lately, but continue to claw back, and yesterday reached their highest point since early July. However, the inability to hold the rally yesterday may indicate that traders are viewing the market as short-term overbought, technically.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher in what appears to be well-supported cash fundamentals. Less-than-ideal weather will also be supportive as snowy, wet, and windy conditions are a problem in the northern Plains.


Hog futures are called steady to higher on follow through and a stronger looking technical picture. The entire commodity complex appears to be finding strength and shortfalls of supplies elsewhere should help pork prices move higher.


Carol Tillmann

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