TFM Sunrise Update 11-25-19


Corn futures perked up overnight with gains of more than 2 cents with an uptick in demand in last week’s export sales and shipment data. However, overall technical weakness continues within a rather tight trading range as we work towards the Thanksgiving holiday and first notice on Dec corn futures at the end of the week. Weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports will be out today. March corn got to 3.82-1/4 overnight and has a near-term downside target sitting at around last week’s low of 3.76-3/4.


Bean futures were up overnight after grinding lower into oversold territory last week. Futures traded inside Friday’s ranges overnight, and with a weak Brazilian currency and improved weather conditions in South America, this will likely limit any short-term rallies. Technically, we’ll need to see prices stay in the green today because they’re challenging some key technical support levels, and if they break, we could realize additional long liquidation. Jan beans are up 3 to 9.00 with a downside objective of 8.90-1/4.


Wheat futures are higher this morning led by Chi winter wheat contracts. The improved technical picture and a friendly weekly reversal sparked some additional short covering overnight with Dec rally 7-3/4 cents to a one-month high of 5.23. KC wheat was up 5 cents to 4.29 and are in a more choppy pattern as demand remain the key focus versus competitive global supplies. Spring wheat is up 2-1/2 cents this morning.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Nov Cattle on Feed numbers stayed relatively in line with expectations, but placements were slightly below anticipated levels. The report should be viewed as bullish to futures and traders will now question a corrective move from feeder futures that dropped over 300 points Friday. Firm cash trade is viewed as supportive for the front months.


Hog futures are called mixed. The turn down in retail values last week make it difficult for prices to rally, but hog futures are oversold, and may be a value at these levels. The U.S./Chinese trade negotiations will also act as a gauge in price movements, as U.S. supplies stay plentiful which will act as the lid on any short-term price rallies.


Carol Tillmann

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