TFM Sunrise Update 11-18-19


Corn futures were narrowly mixed overnight, trading a 1-1/4 cent trading range near 6-week lows. A very poor finish last week leaves the market vulnerable to further weakness for this week. Slow export sales and a lack of positive news are hindrances to higher prices. Dec corn, at 3.71-3/4 sees next support at 3.66-3/4. Weekly Export Inspections and Harvest Progress data will be out today, and while. U.S. harvest continues to plug along, Argentina has had decent rains with more in the near-term forecast promoting good growth. In outside markets, the dollar is softening, crude trending higher, but weaker this morning; and, new highs in stock markets are being forged again.


Soybean futures were also flat overnight with Jan beans sticking to the contract’s slightly down-trending 200-day moving average at 9.18-1/4. New positive news is lacking. Uncertainty with trade and a more conducive weather scenario for the southern Hemisphere crops leave beans vulnerable to further weakness. All in all, a quiet looking start to the week as the month of November reaches its mid-point and Phase I of the trade deal with China hangs in limbo with both sides in agreement that it’s in the best interest of both countries to get the achievable items agreed upon before tackling the more difficult issues..


Wheat futures were flat/weaker overnight after a poor technical finish at the end of last week, with futures contracts finishing at their lowest level in several weeks. This could lead to further selling today. The Mar through Sept Chicago wheat contracts are now slumping through their respective 200-day moving average support areas, a negative sign moving forward. Production forecasts for Argentina and Australia are slipping, but U.S. the wheat export pace is not helping the market. As of Nov 7, cumulative exports were at only 58.7% of the USDA forecast for 2019-20 versus the 5-year average of 66.4%.


Cattle futures are called mixed. Prices may have stalled last week. Futures finished uneventfully Friday, with both Feb and Apr futures closing mostly unchanged for the week. According to Ag, a few additional cattle were purchased in the north with Iowa sales reaching $118 live. The bulk of clean up trade was at $115 live and $182 dressed. Packers didn’t touch additional purchases in the south so as to not jeopardize formula pricing.  Slaughter reached 657,000 head – a high for the past few weeks. This week will be a full scheduled slaughter week followed by Thanksgiving, a holiday shortened week.


Hog futures are called mixed. Summer month contracts finished at their lowest level in two weeks and may be finding it difficult to generate buying interest when they reach overhead 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Unless a positive news comes out of a trade deal with China, look for more sideways to weaker.


Lisa Heder

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates