TFM Sunrise Update 11-15-19


Corn markets are called mixed as the market maintains a very tight trading range for the week. Corn seems to be caught between demand bears and supply bulls at the moment. Without any trade news, a later harvest showing lower results should keep the market supported as well as cold weather creating the need to feed cattle and hogs more for weight gain. A continued slow pace in exports should help keep a lid on any rallies, though. We will get Weekly Export Sales this morning, delayed one day due to Veteran’s Day on Monday. Dec corn is now content to trade the 3.75 price area which is below all the contract’s moving averages.


Soybean futures were down 1-1/2 cents overnight. While trade negotiations between the U.S. and China seemed to hit a wall the past couple of days, yesterday’s stabilization action and nearby support levels seem somewhat supportive. About 1.80 mil tons of soybeans for state reserves are said to be held up at Chinese ports. Yet, another sale of 129,000 tons of U.S. beans were reported sold to China yesterday for January delivery. January bean futures, trading at 9.15-1/2, are now the front month contract and is now facing resistance at the contract’s 200-day moving average at 9.18-3/4.


Winter wheat futures were off 1 to 2 cents overnight and have taken back Tuesday’s strength. They have not fared well in the face of technical resistance levels since then. Chi contracts have drifted toward the low end of their recent ranges, while the KC contract gave back all the technical ground it earned on Tuesday. Spring wheat futures are turning lower despite being deeply oversold. A stalled rally in the dollar offers outside market support. Traders note that Argentina’s wheat production estimates continue to slip. Trader are looking for this morning’s Weekly Export Sales to come in between 250,000 and 500,000 tons.


Cattle futures are called steady to lower. While Thursday’s bounce after a sharp sell-off on Wednesday may cause some to take a deep breath, no technical resistance points were breached, which could end up looking like a sell signal. That said, choice values have been impressive lately, as well as cash cattle trade in the country. Meanwhile, Trade demands with China from both sides is seen as a barrier to further price strength.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower. The nearby Dec contract continues to pull its consolidation range lower, while the Feb and Apr contracts got a bit stretched out earlier this week and seemed to be springing back toward nearby consolidation.


Lisa Heder

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