TFM Sunrise Update 11-14-19


Corn futures were up a penny overnight, but lackluster for the week, so far. The strength in the U.S. dollar and lack of positive developments lately suggest that corn can continue to drift toward the low end of its recent range. It has been difficult for end users to secure corn supplies lately, so that should keep selling interest at bay to a certain degree. Buyers are just not interested in the corn market right now. Weekly Export Sales, normally scheduled for Thursday’s, are pushed back to tomorrow due to Veteran’s Day on Monday closing banks and USDA offices.


Soybean futures were unchanged overnight. Technical momentum is pointing lower, and the head-and-shoulders formation on the charts is also pointing lower. On the flip-side, there seems to be too much potential for further production reductions or solid export sales to spark overwhelming seller interest in this market, so look for choppy, sideways action to finish out the week. January beans are trading near 9.15, 4 cents below the contract’s 200-day moving average that is situated at 9.19. Today is the last trading day for November beans.


Wheat futures were firm overnight with Dec Chicago wheat up 2 cents to 5.11, and Dec KC wheat up 3-1/2 to 4.28-1/4. Monday’s strength was quickly reversed yesterday, as wheat markets were quickly pushed back into their recent ranges. The higher trend of the U.S. dollar is a bearish factor, but tender activity has been picking up lately. Poor weather in South America and Australia seem to suggest that the global balance sheet could begin to tighten.


Cattle futures are called mixed to lower. Yesterday’s weakness seemed somewhat inevitable due to the sharply overbought technical picture the past two months. However, strength in retail and cash trade could stem losses in the near term. No sales were reported on the on-line cattle auction yesterday, though bids that were rejected came in at lofty levels. Retailers are usually backing away from beef purchases in the near future. Cattle markets did hold some significant support levels yesterday, though some could be taken out fairly easily.


Hog futures are called mixed. The deferred contracts have begun to creep out of recent consolidation levels, but the Dec contract cannot seem to rally despite the surge in pork values lately. Friday’s Export Sales report should confirm many traders’ feelings that the surge has been due to active sales. Until then, Dec cattle do not seem to be able to break out of their recent choppy trade.


Lisa Heder

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