TFM Sunrise Update 11-12-19


Corn futures were unchanged overnight. Technicals look soft after yesterday’s poor finish when a lack of friendly news allowed prices to drift lower and challenge support areas. Weekly Crop Progress was delayed one day due to Veterans Day, so we’ll get that update this afternoon and Weekly Export Inspections this morning. The market may be technically oversold after softening recently.  Friday’s USDA report was not overly supportive for corn and confirmed the market’s concern about demand, but in years where the USDA dropped their yield estimate in November, it is noted that the market has a strong tendency to bottom in November.


Soybean futures were up a penny in a slight technical bounce after plummeting yesterday.  With the terrible looking technical finish yesterday, prices are now likely to challenge the 100-day moving average, which is near 9.13 on Jan after closing at 9.17 yesterday.  The 200-day MA at 9.19-/2 is now resistance. Trade tensions are on a different scale this week than last with unrest in Hong Kong sparking concerns about an economic meltdown which could affect demand.


Wheat futures mostly flat in Chicago wheat overnight, up 2 to 3 in KC. A generally poor finish in two of the last three sessions suggest buying interest is minimal, though, particularly on the heels of USDA’s carryout projection that now stands at 1,014 million bushels. Today’s USDA Weekly Export Inspections are expected to come in at an average pace between 12 and 15 mil bu.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow through as the market continues to look very strong and challenge the highs from last April. Dec cattle looks to lead the way after closing near its highs on Monday. As a top is sought by index funds and other market participants amid a technically overbought market, choppy, sometimes volatile swings may occur on a day to day basis.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower on expectations for steady to lower cash. The market is also likely to remain stagnant until more is known about trade with China as political unrest grows. That said, underlying support stems from rising pork prices as a result of China and others importing more U.S. pork.


Lisa Heder

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