TFM Sunrise Update 10-4-19


Corn futures are called mixed to weaker. Harvest pressure will likely pick up steam, yet wet weather will continue to be a hindrance. Results in the southern states continue to indicate mixed progress with yield in most areas likely down anywhere from 5 to 20% from a year ago. There was a yield estimate release from FC Stone mid-week at 169.3 bpa vs. USDA’s 168.2 bpa. Dec corn was down 2 to 3.86-3/4 overnight while favoring the upper area of this week’s  21-1/4 cent trading range from 371-1/2 on Monday to Tuesday’s intra-day high of 3.92-3/4.


Soybean futures were off slightly overnight as Nov beans stick to the contract’s 200-day moving average located at 9.10-1/2. Wet weather continues to be a problem for maturity and harvest. We believe this will provide underlying support, as will good export sales activity. Technically, though, studies are showing the market in overbought territory which should warrant some caution for the bulls. Soymeal technicals are more neutral, Soyoil leaning positive.


Wheat futures are called mixed to lower after losing a penny or two overnight. US exporters announced a sale of 130,000 tons of white wheat to China yesterday. This was the largest single purchase since December 2016 and Mpls wheat is  up slightly this morning after a firm close yesterday. A lack of new news for winter wheat and choppiness in the dollar may allow prices to drift and take their lead from row crops today.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow through. The trend remains entrenched upward with no topping signals yet. Dec cattle closed at their highest level since the first week of August which was right before the slaughter plant fire. A level of resistance for the contract bears watching at 111.70.


Hog futures are called mixed. Front months are likely holding too much premium to cash, and this will keep a lid on both Oct and Dec, particularly with the large drop in pork prices and only minor purchases to China. Yesterday’s slaughter was 489,000, compared to 462,000 a year ago.


Lisa Heder

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates