TFM Sunrise Update 10-31-19


Corn futures were down 3-1/2 cents overnight, unable to build on good late session buying yesterday. Farmer selling has been somewhat light and harvest looks as though it will drag out over a considerable amount of time due to wet conditions hampering the dry-down in the field. Dec corn traded up to 3.91 last night, but stayed inside Wednesday’s 6 cent trading range between 3.91-1/4 and 3.85-1/4. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 300,000 to 800,000 tons.


Soybean futures were down slightly overnight, but made another round of new lows for the recent down-trend. Nov was down 2-1/2 to 9.13-1/2, the lowest point since Oct 8. Prices have technically looked soft over the last few sessions despite uncertainty with weather and harvest results. Uncertainty with the trade summit, which has now been either canceled or suspended in November, seemed to highlight a negative tone yesterday though wording from the Administration was that a signing between China and the U.S. is still on course. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 500,000 to 1.10 mil tons.


Wheat futures were down 3 cents overnight and continue to plot lower highs and lower lows on an almost daily basis. In the big scheme of things, prices neither look bullish or bearish. Dry conditions in Australia offer support but ample world inventories weigh on matters, for now. We are becoming more confident that not all soft red winter wheat acres will get planted this fall. Trade estimates for this morning’s USDA Weekly Export Sales are 200,000 to 500,000 tons.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on follow through after trading mixed yesterday before blowing the top off with new highs. The technical picture continues to suggest the market is likely overbought which makes it vulnerable to a late week pull-back, but good product movement at higher prices and short covering, as well as potentially new buying interest, continue to develop. The Fed Cattle Exchange on Wednesday saw 2 lots of heifers in KS sold at $112/cwt prior to two lots being passed over at 112.25, a bargain compared to where Dec settled at 118.30.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher. Yesterday was an impressive day with hog futures posting reversals on many charts finishing with gains of 40 to 145 points as Dec led the rally. Traders view stability in the pork market and seem to remain optimistic that China will be an aggressive buyer of U.S. pork.


Carol Tillmann

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