TFM Sunrise Update 10-14-19


Corn futures traded two-sided overnight on heels of harvest stoppage due to wet weather, strong technical strength, and optimism that a deal with China will provide underlying support. Dec corn poked above the $4.00 mark to 4.02-1/2 for the first time since August 12, traded as low as 3.95-1/4. The contract’s 200 day moving average as 4.01-1/2 looks to be a pivot point today with USDA closed due to Columbus Day, thus there will be no Weekly Export Inspections or Harvest Progress updates today. And, the banks are closed today. Managed Money is estimated to be net short 98,000 Corn.


Bean futures also traded two-sided overnight with Nov trading a 10 cent range between 9.45-1/2 and 9.35-1/2. The market is buoyed by a host of positive news last week including declining carryout, concerns that yield numbers could continue to decline, poor weather, and a deal with China. U.S. farmers cheered the Trump administration’s announcement of a potentially dramatic increase in U.S. agricultural sales to China on Friday but warned they needed to see a follow-through of actual purchases. Managed Money is estimated to be net long 31,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 29,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 29,000 Soyoil.


Wheat futures were firm overnight after finding support from a retreat in the greenback on Friday. However, significant new fundamental news is lacking and the price strength could bring farmer selling to the table sooner than later. Managed Money is estimated to be net short 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat. In tender activity, Tunisia seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat.


Cattle futures are called steady to higher on the heels of a solid week up last week and expectations for steady to higher cash this week. Today is the last trading day for October futures. Packers became more active on Friday at higher prices in all regions. In the north the bulk of cattle traded at $109-110/cwt live, $2 higher than last week. In the south cattle traded at $109, also $2 higher than last week. Southern sales occurred late on Friday and the trade deal was sealed after the markets closed.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher on follow through from improving demand prospects and a trade deal with China. Today is the last trading day for October futures, leaving the new lead month, December in technical limbo within the contract’s near and long-term moving averages.


Kelly Rubisch

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