TFM Sunrise Update 1-6-20


Corn futures are called steady to lower to begin the first full week of trading for 2020. March corn was unchanged overnight following a weak technical close Friday, led by a risk off factor due to geo-political events Thursday night.  The implications of the conflict with Iran in Iraq on markets was apparent on Friday when both the stock market and commodity markets fell except for oil prices that moved up. This changed the technical picture to less friendly for the corn market. Crude made new highs again overnight and the dollar is lower which may provide some outside-market support. Prices may see additional long liquidation and will likely stay choppy this week as the market focuses on the January 10 Grain Stocks and WASDE report. We wuk get USDA Weekly Export Inspections this morning.


Soybean futures were down a penny overnight pressured by the pullback in soyoil. Bean futures were an overbought market and needed a trigger. With geo-political events late last week weighing on prices, it was easy to see long liquidation in last Friday’s trade. The market is anticipating Friday’s USDA WASDE and Grain Stocks report, which may keep prices choppy.


Wheat futures were off a nickel overnight, easing from an overbought condition late last week that saw prices hit a six-month high. Prices have now rallied nearly $1.00 per bushel since the September lows and may be poised for some setback moving into a key round of fundamental numbers at the end of this week.


Cattle futures are called steady to lower. Like other markets, cattle futures are showing some technical weakness due to the risk off trade last Friday afternoon. Cash prices did stay firmer, 1.00 to 2.00 higher than the previous week.


Hog futures are called mixed to lower. Limit down trade in the Feb contract last Friday quickly weakened the technical picture in the front month futures. The strong premium of futures over the lean hog index in cash has been concerning.


Lisa Heder

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