TFM Sunrise Update 1-3-20


Corn futures are lower this morning, down 2 cents in the nearby March to 3.89-1/2. An air strike at the Baghdad International Airport early on Friday killed Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force, and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, according to newswires. Yesterday’s gains were supportive looking for the first day of the new year and strong basis continues to underpin prices. Meanwhile, supply side risks remain elevated in the Middle East and we could see tensions continue to elevate between the U.S. and Iran-backed militia in Iraq which would act as a wet rag on markets such as Ags, as well as an imbalance in other markets. Crude has spiked more than 200 points higher to a new high, Stock market futures made a new high, but have since sold off nearly 400 points; and the dollar is up 20 points.


Soybean futures were down 5 to 6 cents overnight. South American weather looks mostly conducive for crop production. Expectations and hope for improved exports is providing underlying support. Most of the enthusiasm reflected in higher prices is in anticipation of the U.S. and China signing an agreement on 1/15. If you are behind on sales, get current.


Wheat futures traded 5 to 6 cents lower overnight. Prices didn’t have a strong close yesterday but continue to move upward on expectations and/or hopes of additional export business with China. Those ideas, though are tempered by unrest in the Middle East.


Cattle futures are called mixed to weaker. Futures slid some yesterday, and the choice/select spread would argue that feedlots are not as current as they once were. Good demand continues to surface, which offers some underlying support.


Hog futures are called mixed. The Feb contract is gradually climbing upward, but we are concerned it is holding too much premium to cash.


Carol Tillmann

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates