TFM Sunrise Update 1-27-20


Corn futures gapped lower overnight, losing 6 to 7 cents after Thursday’s strong gains gave way to Friday’s even weaker closes. Farmers’ selling likely picked up last week as Mar futures reached its highest level since early November. However, virus fears spreading across the globe seem to be driving the selloff in many markets including the Yuan, stocks and oil to start the week.


Soybean futures were down double digits overnight along with losses in bean meal and a steep fall off in soybean oil. Mar beans lost 12 cents to 8.90 to fall below $9.00 per bushel for the first time since early December. It was a difficult week as futures fell more than 25 cents on the week anticipating a buildup in South American harvest pressure in the weeks ahead. Early yield results are suggesting as, or better than expected.


Wheat futures are following suit with row crops. Winter wheat contracts gapped lower and are 8 to 9 cents lower, but are expected to remain choppy this week The wheat market has been resilient all year and down days have usually proven to be buying opportunities.


Cattle futures are to lower. Cattle on feed numbers were about as expected. Yet concerns that the technical picture was bruised last week and that coronavirus could hamper demand making prices on the defensive. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 12.0 million head on Jan 1, 2020. The inventory was 2% above Jan 1, 2019. The inventory included 7.37 million steers and steer calves, up 1% from the previous year. This group accounted for 62% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.59 million head, up 4% from 2019. Placements during December totaled 1.83 million head, 3% above 2019. Marketings during December totaled 1.83 mil head, 5% above 2018. Other disappearance totaled 67,000 head during December, 11% below 2018.


Hog futures are lower on follow through. Friday’s price activity was less than stellar and prices can’t make up their mind which direction they want to go. Therefore, with Feb holding a 6.00 premium to the index, we expect sideways to lower.


Kelly Rubisch

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