TFM Sunrise Update 1-21-20


Corn futures traded two-sided overnight in the upper end of Friday’s stronger trading ranges. Futures finished higher last Friday on the prospects of China stepping into corn export markets. March corn begins this holiday-shortened week at its 100-day moving average at 3.87, down 2-1/4 cents from Friday’s settlement. Weekly Export Inspections will be out this morning. Demand will be key for maintaining a foot-hold on last week’s modest gains after a volatile week.


Soybean futures were also choppy overnight and are down 2-3/4 cents as of 5:30 AM. Front month Mar posted a bullish reversal on daily charts, as prices held key 200-day moving average support at the 9.20 level. The contract is now near its 40-day at 9.27. For now, the trend is lower with the break Wednesday of support at 9.35 March after a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction to the signing of the Phase One deal, but should find support above contract lows.


Wheat futures were mixed overnight with Chi contracts up 3 cents, supported by a strong technical close last Friday. Kc and Mpls wheat is off a penny. Global wheat prices are also supportive. The overall uptrend of the wheat market remains intact despite a strengthening dollar and wheat prices pushing into overbought territory on a number of technical indicators, and also as U.S. and world stocks of wheat remain heavy.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer. Cash trade last week was disappointing, but firming retail values provide optimism for cash prices and, thus futures. The trend has leveled off and looks to maintain a sideways fashion this holiday-shortened week, the last for awhile.


Hog futures are called mixed. Charts recovered nicely on the front month Feb contract after a couple difficult weeks, but heavy supplies stays burdensome. The overall uncertainty in the hog and pork complex has futures plotting a course along a building base of support levels.


Kelly Rubisch

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