CORN
Corn futures look weak this morning after an impressive open. May is down 0.0475 to 3.4175, July is down 0.045 to 3.4725 and Dec is down 0.035 to 3.6075. Ethanol demand continues to drop and there is no indication yet that the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will end soon. The effects of this oil war are not likely to show up in tomorrow’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report. The data used in that report is finalized by March 1, so the market is not expecting much of a shift from the 94m acreage estimate touted in the USDA Outlook Forum. Meanwhile, cheap corn prices have created solid export demand which is supportive. July corn futures tested their 10-day moving average resistance level this morning for the fourth session in a row and have since fallen lower. Currently, July corn is trading just off the lows of the day. Funds were thought to have sold 9,000 contracts of corn on Friday.
SOYBEANS
Soybean markets are choppy this morning, with May, July and Nov all down 0.005 to 8.81, 8.8525 and 8.7625 respectively. Soybeans are finding most of their support from slowing exports of soybean and soybean products out of South America. A higher US Dollar and lower Brazilian Real are keeping price movement subdued. Tomorrow’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report is expected to show 84m intended soybean acres for the 2020 crop year. This number is far from final though it is likely priced in. July beans traded as high this morning as 8.965 but have since fallen back towards the lower end of the day’s range. Still, the trend appears higher with nearby resistance at 8.995, or the 50-day moving average. Funds were thought to have been net even during Friday’s session.
WHEAT
Wheat markets are soft so far this morning, with May CHI wheat down 0.055 to 5.655, May KC wheat is down 0.0425 to 4.825 and May MPLS Wheat is down 0.0625 to 5.315. Currency exchange rates are likely the biggest reason for weakness so far today. The US Dollar is stabilizing after sharp losses, and the Russian Ruble is turning lower again. Overall though, the increasing demand for wheat supplies despite major supply or consumption shifts is still bullish in the short term. Tomorrow’s Prospective Plantings report is expected to show about 45m acres, right in line with the USDA Outlook Forum. July CHI and MPLS wheat futures are trading just off session lows though are still within Friday’s ranges. July KC wheat has fallen below Friday’s lows and may be making a better case so far for a turn lower. Funds were thought to have bought about 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat on Friday.
CATTLE
Cattle markets are mixed this morning, with April lives up 0.32 to 101.27, June lives are up 0.30 to 89.72 and August lives are unchanged at 90.45. May feeders are down 0.55 to 120.37 and August feeders are down 0.90 to 126.20. Beef values have continued to pull back from their recent surge, though cash values rallied impressively last week. The 5-area average jumped nearly 10.00 last week. June live cattle are trading just off the highs of the day after a very poor opening and May feeders are trading in the middle of the day’s range after a successful test of nearby support this morning.
HOGS
Hog markets are showing sharp losses early in the session, with April down 1.85 to 56.60, June down 3.07 to 61.17 and July down 2.32 to 64.47. Pork values have started to pull back from the recent rally though the cash index is still trending higher. Production has been running much faster than the same time last year, so in a period of demand pulling back, traders are concerned about huge pork inventories. Exports have been strong lately, but this will need to continue, if not increase, to offset heavy supplies. June hogs gapped lower for the second session in a row and are currently holding their lower Bollinger band as support. Today’s session is the second in a row of new lows.
Author
Kelly Rubisch