TFM Midday Update 7-6-20

CORN

  • July up 0.325 @ 3.4575, September up 0.03 @ 3.465, December up 0.025 @ 3.56
  • Hot and dry forecasts for the next two weeks
  • Drought monitor showing stress in parts of central Illinois and Indiana
  • EPA postponed biofuel blending mandate
  • Dec corn is making its second inside session in a row
  • Prices are lower than opening trades but still holding gains

SOYBEANS

  • July up 0.09 @ 9.015, August up 0.09 @ 9.00, November up 0.1125 @ 9.08
  • Lack of moisture in forecasts, drought stress appearing in North Dakota, Illinois and Indiana
  • Pressure in soybean oil late Thursday
  • Basis levels a bit soft for this time of year
  • November beans are trading in the middle of the day’s range so far
  • Prices tested the 200-day moving average earlier but couldn’t break through

WHEAT

  • Dec CHI down 0.03 @ 4.9675, Dec KC up 0.0075 @ 4.475, Dec MPLS up 0.0275 @ 5.265
  • French wheat harvest is underway, conditions are 19% below last year
  • German harvest is starting in a few weeks, excess moisture is causing quality issues
  • Lower EU and Ukraine crop should help to boost US exports in August through December
  • CHI futures are trapped between the 10-day moving average support and 20-day moving average resistance

CATTLE

  • August lives up 0.92 @ 100.32, October lives up 1.30 @ 103.97, December lives up 1.02 @ 106.92
  • August feeders up 1.27 @ 136.15, September feeders up 1.35 @ 137.20
  • Cash trade was slightly lower last week, volume was light which is not unusual for a holiday week
  • Strong jobs report last week gave strong economic tone
  • Heavy weights are keeping beef production very high
  • August lives are trading at their highest levels since May 13
  • Technicals are close to overbought

HOGS

  • July up 0.45 @ 45.17, August up 0.35 @ 49.55, October up 0.50 @ 48.82
  • Cash Index slightly lower
  • Sharp bounce in pork values on Thursday
  • Strong exports to China lately, exports in May accounted for a record percentage of US production
  • Covid outbreak in Brazil is raising uncertainty regarding production capabilities
  • August tested the 10-day moving average resistance but has since pulled back

Author

Sam Seid

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