TFM Midday Update 7-27-21

CORN

  • Sept up 2 @ 5.52 & Dec up 3 @ 5.50
  • US corn crop rated at 64% good to excellent vs 65% last week and 72% last year
  • Temps expected to be hot over the next 3 days for much of the Corn Belt
  • September corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $10 per bushel
  • Scattered showers in Midwest this week
  • Flooding in China has hurt corn & soybean crops

SOYBEANS

  • Aug up 15 @ 14.28 & Nov up 16 @ 13.73
  • US soybean crop rated at 58% good to excellent vs 60% last week and 72% last year
  • First notice day for August soybeans is on Friday
  • Resurgence of Covid in Malaysia is impacting palm oil production, which could affect the US soybean oil market
  • September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $18.20 per bushel

WHEAT

  • Sept wheat up 3 @ 6.80, Sept KC up 7 @ 6.46, Sept MNPLS up 5 @ 8.84
  • US spring wheat crop rated at only 9% good to excellent vs 11% last week and 70% last year
  • Winter wheat crop is 84% harvested vs 80% last year
  • China may have to buy more Russian or European wheat
  • Heat & dryness stressing heading wheat in northern Plains
  • Ukraine most favorable weather – trouble in western Russia, too hot/dry

CATTLE

  • Aug LC up .25 @ 123.70  &  Aug FC down .475 @ 161.725
  • Drought in the west is forcing liquidation
  • Packers only bought 76,804 head of cattle last week
  • Futures able to trade higher despite lower cash last week
  • Marketings in June totaled 2.022 million head – the largest placements have been in June since 2011
  • JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, imported 30 ship loads of corn into Brazil from Argentina due to the short crop caused by drought and frost

HOGS

  • Aug hogs down .025 @ 107.375 & Aug pork cutout up .325 @ 117.750
  • Flooding in China killed more than 1 million hogs
  • Hog futures started the week stronger due to seasonally tight supplies, improving market technicals, and futures discount to the cash market
  • Technical buying supporting hogs at Oct narrows the gap to August
  • Retail carcasses have been trading firmer, helping support prices
  • There are still ongoing concerns of African Swine Fever in China

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