TFM Midday Update 7-22-20

CORN

September up 0.03 @ 3.26, December up 0.0225 @ 3.33, March up 0.15 @ 3.43
Short term weather looks bearish but forecasts are drying out for the beginning of August
Strong feed grain demand from China
China corn prices at 5-year highs
December futures held lows from yesterday
Tight, inside session so far
Stochastics are oversold but are not giving a buy signal

August down 0.01 @ 8.955, September down 0.015 @ 8.90, November down 0.025 @ 8.905
Weather forecasts for the first few days of August are showing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
US ordered the closure of the China consulate in Houston which could create trade tensions
Lower US dollar
November futures tested and held their 10-day moving average support again this morning
Momentum indicators pointing lower but trendline and moving average support has not been violated

December CHI down 0.05 @ 5.3825, December KC down 0.0575 @ 4.595, December MPLS down 0.0325 @ 5.2825
Breakdown in US dollar to lowest levels since early March
Feedgrain tightness in China could lead to more wheat purchases
Black Sea wheat is the cheapest in the world
Egypt bought wheat from Ukraine yesterday
CHI futures are trading above the 10-day moving average resistance level, KC wheat is testing its 10-day moving average resistance level
Spring wheat futures are still trading inside yesterday’s range

August lives down 0.42 @ 101.42, October lives down 0.27 @ 105.85, December lives down 0.10 @ 110.20
August feeders up 0.32 @ 141.65, September feeders up 0.30 @ 143.27
Beef values still near lows not seen since 2017
Cash cattle trade stabilizing so far this week in the 95.00-96.00 range
August and October lives still holding 10-day moving average support level and are still overbought

August up 1.02 @ 52.50, October up 0.27 @ 50.30, December up 0.10 @ 51.65
Cash Index is still trending higher, sizeable jump in pork prices at yesterday’s close
China pig prices may be stalling out
Weights are starting to pull back again
August hogs gapped higher but are still trading below their 50-day moving average resistance

Sam Seid