TFM Midday Update 7-16-20

CORN

  • September up 0.055 @ 3.315, December up 0.05 @ 3.39, March up 0.05 @ 3.495
  • 6-10 day forecasts are still hot and wet, but 8-14 day forecasts begin to dry out
  • Strong demand tone from China and South Korea
  • US sold 981,100 tonnes of corn for the week ending July 9, up sharply from last week and the previous 4-week average
  • December corn is retesting the 50-day moving average resistance level
  • Gap created on Monday is still open
  • Funds were net even in corn yesterday

SOYBEANS

  • August up 0.0825 @ 8.945, September up 0.0925 @ 8.90, November up 0.0925 @ 8.92
  • Longer range forecasts are starting to dry out, and weather risk is appearing for August
  • Rumors that China purchased at least 5 cargoes of US beans yesterday
  • Weakness in US dollar
  • US sold 313,000 tonnes of beans of the week ending July 9, down 67% from last week and down 46% from the previous 4-week average
  • November beans held their 20-day moving average support this morning and are now testing their 10-day moving average resistance
  • Gap from Monday has been filled
  • Funds bought about 7,000 contracts of beans yesterday

WHEAT

  • December CHI wheat down 0.0725 @ 5.4625, December KC wheat down 0.0875 @ 4.62, December KC wheat down 0.0775 @ 5.3275
  • Rumors that China was a big buyer of soft red winter wheat lately
  • US dollar looking soft, possible downside breakout
  • Rallying world export prices
  • Dec CHI wheat is testing the 200-day moving average support level, stochastics are still overbought
  • Dec KC wheat has fallen back below the 50-day moving average level after making its first close above that level yesterday since May 8
  • Dec MPLS futures fell back below the 50-day moving average support and have also fallen through the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels
  • Funds bought about 9,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

CATTLE

  • August lives up 0.60 @ 101.82, October lives up 1.07 @ 105.62, December lives up 1.10 @ 109.30
  • August feeders up 1.62 @ 141.05, September feeders up 1.85 @ 141.37
  • Cash trade trying to creep higher
  • Beef values are still at their lowest levels since December of 2017
  • Slaughter this week is running behind last week and the same week last year
  • October lives are trading at their highest levels since March 6
  • September feeders are testing their 200-day moving average resistance

HOGS

  • August up 3.10 @ 53.22, October up 2.32 @ 51.75, December up 1.82 @ 52.82
  • Cash Index is at its highest point since June 18
  • Highest carcass cutout value since July 10
  • Average weights increased a bit last week. but hot temps could pull weights lower
  • August hogs are trading at their highest prices since June 19
  • October hogs are trading above their 50-day moving average for the first time since June 2, and a close above would be the first since June 9

Author

Sam Seid

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