CORN
- July up 0.095 @ 3.48, September up 0.0825 @ 3.4975, December up 0.09 @ 3.595
- Sharp drop yesterday in 2020 planted acreage
- Heat and increasing dryness in 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts
- With lower acreage number, US production should be more sensitive now to weather threats
- Dec futures couldn’t close above the 100-day moving average resistance level yesterday but have pushed through this morning
- Highest Dec trades today since March 30
- Massive fund short position, likely bought back about 40,000 contracts yesterday
SOYBEANS
- July up 0.09 @ 8.9325, August up 0.105 @ 8.8925, November up 0.13 @ 8.9525
- Planted acreage only increased by about 300,000 acres from the March estimate
- Weather forecasts starting to show a hot and dry pattern for the next two weeks
- Nov beans made their highest close yesterday since March 11
- Nov futures are pushing to new highs for the session
- Gap on Nov chart at 9.035 made on March 9
- Funds bought about 19,000 contracts of yesterday
WHEAT
- Dec CHI up 0.015 @ 5.0075, Dec KC down 0.0175 @ 4.5025, Dec MPLS down 0.0275 @ 5.3075
- All wheat acres came in a bit below the average trade guess yesterday, primarily due to lower spring wheat plantings
- Higher wheat stocks than expected
- USDA Foreign Agriculture is projecting a 4.4mmt decrease in Ukrainian winter wheat production and a possible drop in exports of 5.1mmt
- Dec CHI wheat is making an inside session so far after yesterday’s highest close since June 17
- Dec KC is trading in a two way range, trying to hold the 10-day moving average support
- Spring wheat markets are setting back, though still inside Tuesday’s range
- Funds bought 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday
CATTLE
- August lives up 0.17 @ 96.45, October lives unchanged @ 99.72, December lives down 0.20 @ 103.45
- August feeders down 1.85 @ 131.00, September feeders down 1.55 @ 131.82
- Choice beef values are still slipping lower and may continue lower after the holiday weekend
- Early week cash trade is down very slightly from Friday’s trade
- Weekly slaughter on pace with the same week last year
- August lives and feeders both tested the 100-day moving average resistance levels overnight
- Lives are still holding long term support but the feeder futures are trading below their 50-day moving average support
HOGS
- July up 0.15 @ 45.32, August up 0.85 @ 49.87, October down 0.57 @ 48.77
- Cash Index up very slightly this morning
- Pork values are still moving lower as inventories build
- China spot pig prices are still rallying, up 4.6% just for the week so far
- August hogs have nearly filled their gap and stochastics are close to a bullish crossover
- October hogs tested the 10-day moving average resistance but couldn’t break through
Author
Sam Seid