TFM Midday Update 6-8-20

CORN

July up 0.01 @ 3.3225, September up 0.0125 @ 3.3675, December up 0.01 @ 3.4625
Crude oil prices lower after strong closes above resistance on Friday
China has sold nearly 8mmt of corn out of state reserves over the past two weeks
Forecasts are showing widespread rains across most of the Corn Belt this week
July corn has not traded below Friday’s close so far today, but is well off the session highs
Holding upper Bollinger Band as support
Nearly overbought stochastics

July down 0.0375 @ 8.64, August down 0.0375 @ 8.6625, November down 0.035 @ 8.76
Brazilian real @ 2 1/2 month highs
Strong gains last week, along with a lack of carry, boosted producer selling
Some believe strong China buying will continue, others think that recent purchases may create slower buying in the near future
May China soybean imports came in 27% ahead of last May, 40% ahead of April, and was the highest monthly export total since December
July beans are trading just off session lows
Back within Bollinger Band range
Stochastics curling out of overbought levels, possibly making a sell signal

July CHI wheat down 0.05 @ 5.095, July KC wheat down 0.03 @ 5.4825, July MPLS wheat down 0.0075 to 5.18
US dollar stabilizing near recent lows, Russian ruble at highest levels since early March
Rains in wheat-growing areas of Russia last week
Hot and dry weather in the US southern Plains will jump start harvest but could also limit yield potential
Weather in norther Plains and Canadian Prairies has been nonthreatening lately
Winter wheat contracts are holding 10 and 20-day moving average support levels
Spring wheat futures are trading in quiet, two-way ranges so far today

June live cattle up 0.35 @ 94.25, August lives up 0.20 @ 96.37, October lives up 0.22 @ 99.52
August feeders down 0.60 @ 133.57, September feeders down 0.52 @ 134.95
Sharp drop in cash prices last week to 105.00 vs 118.00-120.00 the previous week
5-area average fell over 4.00 last week
Choice beef values are down 45% from their May 12 peak
Gap on live cattle chart from May 6 has still not been filled
Stochastics are nearly oversold, though trend appears to be sideways

June unchanged @ 47.45, July up 0.12 @ 54.05, August down 0.27 @ 57.07
CME Lean Hog Index down 2.03 @ 53.35
Carcass cutout values down 40% from May 12 peak
Slaughter last week was up 1.7% from the same week last year
Recovering slaughter and heavy weights will add to pork supplies, but could also boost demand for slaughter supplies
Exports of US pork to China reached a new record in April and represented almost 32% of April US production
July hogs trading just off highs of the day
Oversold stochastics

Sam Seid