TFM Midday Update 6-22-20


  • July down 0.0325 @ 3.2925, September down 0.0375 @ 3.335, December down 0.0375 @ 3.415
  • Solid rain coverage over the weekend
  • Forecasts showing above-normal precip and temps for the next two weeks
  • Brazilian crop estimates increasing
  • Talk that China may buy U.S. ethanol and up to 2-3mmt of US corn
  • July is back below the 10-day moving average support level but holding the 20-day moving average support
  • Sideways to higher trend is still intact but looks somewhat weak
  • Funds bought 5,000 contracts on Friday


  • July down 0.0075 @ 8.7575, August down 0.0175 @ 8.7425, November down 0.02 @ 8.7875
  • Bearish weather over the weekend, bearish weather forecasts for the next two weeks
  • Expectations for higher planted acres on next week’s report
  • Improving trade tone with China
  • Old and new crop beans broke through the 100-day moving average resistance level late last week
  • Overbought stochastics
  • Gaps from early March are still open above current prices


  • July CHI up 0.015 @ 4.8275, July KC up 0.0175 @ 4.30, July MPLS down 0.025 @ 5.2175
  • Reports of strong winter wheat yields in areas that have started harvest
  • Spring wheat conditions should improve with recent and forthcoming rains
  • Increasing Russian crop estimates
  • Winter wheat futures are oversold and trying to consolidate near recent lows
  • Spring wheat futures are consolidating near recent highs
  • Most wheat contracts are making inside sessions today
  • Funds sold about 2,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • June lives down 0.35 @ 94.35, August lives down 0.20 @ 95.20, October lives down 0.15 @ 98.70
  • August feeders up 0.07 @ 132.62, September feeders up 0.10 @ 133.97
  • Bearish Cattle on Feed report on Friday
  • 5-area average last week was down more than 4.00 from the previous week
  • First positive beef close on Friday since mid-May
  • August lives opened below the 50-day moving average support level but are currently trying to break back above
  • August feeders are trading between the 50-day moving average support level and the 10-day moving average resistance


  • July down 1.90 @ 46.55, August down 1.72 @ 51.07, October down 0.67 @ 50.17
  • Cash Index still trending lower, pork values are choppy
  • China has banned imports from a major U.S. Tyson Plant that had a Covid outbreak
  • Logistics issues in Brazil due to Covid disruptions
  • July futures are sharply lower below the lower Bollinger Band support level
  • Stochastics are sharply oversold
  • July, August and October all gapped lower this morning


Sam Seid

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