TFM Midday Update 6-22-20

CORN

July down 0.0325 @ 3.2925, September down 0.0375 @ 3.335, December down 0.0375 @ 3.415
Solid rain coverage over the weekend
Forecasts showing above-normal precip and temps for the next two weeks
Brazilian crop estimates increasing
Talk that China may buy U.S. ethanol and up to 2-3mmt of US corn
July is back below the 10-day moving average support level but holding the 20-day moving average support
Sideways to higher trend is still intact but looks somewhat weak
Funds bought 5,000 contracts on Friday

July down 0.0075 @ 8.7575, August down 0.0175 @ 8.7425, November down 0.02 @ 8.7875
Bearish weather over the weekend, bearish weather forecasts for the next two weeks
Expectations for higher planted acres on next week’s report
Improving trade tone with China
Old and new crop beans broke through the 100-day moving average resistance level late last week
Overbought stochastics
Gaps from early March are still open above current prices

July CHI up 0.015 @ 4.8275, July KC up 0.0175 @ 4.30, July MPLS down 0.025 @ 5.2175
Reports of strong winter wheat yields in areas that have started harvest
Spring wheat conditions should improve with recent and forthcoming rains
Increasing Russian crop estimates
Winter wheat futures are oversold and trying to consolidate near recent lows
Spring wheat futures are consolidating near recent highs
Most wheat contracts are making inside sessions today
Funds sold about 2,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

June lives down 0.35 @ 94.35, August lives down 0.20 @ 95.20, October lives down 0.15 @ 98.70
August feeders up 0.07 @ 132.62, September feeders up 0.10 @ 133.97
Bearish Cattle on Feed report on Friday
5-area average last week was down more than 4.00 from the previous week
First positive beef close on Friday since mid-May
August lives opened below the 50-day moving average support level but are currently trying to break back above
August feeders are trading between the 50-day moving average support level and the 10-day moving average resistance

July down 1.90 @ 46.55, August down 1.72 @ 51.07, October down 0.67 @ 50.17
Cash Index still trending lower, pork values are choppy
China has banned imports from a major U.S. Tyson Plant that had a Covid outbreak
Logistics issues in Brazil due to Covid disruptions
July futures are sharply lower below the lower Bollinger Band support level
Stochastics are sharply oversold
July, August and October all gapped lower this morning

Sam Seid