TFM Midday Update 6-17-20


  • July down 0.0225 @ 3.2675, September down 0.0225 @ 3.32, December down 0.02 @ 3.4075
  • Conflicting weather forecasts for the weekend
  • Northern and western parts of Corn Belt getting progressively drier
  • July corn closed at the 10-day moving average support level yesterday and opened below this morning
  • July futures are currently testing the 20-day moving average support level, and a close below would be the first since May 14
  • Funds sold about 1,000 contracts yesterday


  • July down 0.005 @ 8.665, August down 0.015 @ 8.6675, November down 0.0075 @ 8.7275
  • Meal futures choppy, oil futures still rallying with support from Palm Oil markets
  • Conditions in the Dakotas, Nebraska and parts of Minnesota are quickly declining
  • Precipitation totals and coverage this weekend will be key in driving direction until June acreage report
  • Soybean futures have been testing the 100-day moving average resistance levels for the past week or so and have not yet broken through
  • July beans opened below the 10-day moving average support level this morning, and a close below would be the first since June 1
  • Overbought stochastics
  • Funds sold about 2,000 contracts yesterday


  • July CHI down 0.08 @ 4.88, July KC down 0.0675 @ 4.315, July MPLS down 0.02 @ 5.13
  • Improving weather and conditions for European and Russian crops
  • Russia elected not to continue with an export quota for the rest of 2020
  • Dry weather in the Plains will aid KC harvest, but spotty moisture in the Dakotas may impact Spring Wheat conditions
  • July CHI futures at lowest prices since September, July KC wheat at lowest levels since March
  • Spring wheat futures are consolidating within yesterday’s trading range
  • Funds sold about 7,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • June lives down 0.10, August lives down 0.32 @ 96.45, October lives down 0.17 @ 99.57
  • August feeders up 0.42 @ 133.30, September feeders up 0.35 @ 134.80
  • Increasing slaughter and weights will add to beef supplies
  • Cash cattle markets are drifting lower so far this week
  • Beef prices are nearly in line with the same time last year
  • August lives testing 10-day moving average after opening below
  • Choppy trend sideways still intact
  • August feeders trading just off session-highs and are testing the 100-day moving average resistance


  • July down 0.60 @ 49.05, August down 0.10 @ 52.92, October down 0.47 @ 51.25
  • Cash index still trending lower though momentum may be waning
  • Pork prices choppy to lower
  • China pig inventories are increasing but spot pig prices are also rallying
  • July made new contract lows this morning but is trading in the upper end of the day’s range and back within the Bollinger Band range
  • August and October are pushing to new session highs


Sam Seid

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