TFM Midday Update 6-12-20


  • July up 0.015 @ 3.3125, September up 0.01 to 3.36, December up 0.005 to 3.4425
  • Yesterday’s USDA report indicated 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks would be the largest since 1987/88 and U.S. ending stocks/use ratio would be largest since 1992/93
  • Forecasts for the next two weeks are hot and dry for most areas
  • July futures traded as high today as 3.33 but have fallen back near the lows of the day
  • Yesterday’s successful tests of nearby support despite a bearish WASDE report are likely attracting buyers today
  • Funds bought about 13,000 contracts yesterday


  • July up 0.03 @ 8.69, August up 0.03 @ 8.71, November up 0.035 @ 8.8025
  • Yesterday’s USDA report indicated 2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks and ending stocks/use ratio would be the lowest since 2016/17
  • Strong export sales to China this week, U.S. sold beans to unknown destinations this morning
  • Markets responding to hot forecasts may continue to add weather premium
  • July beans tested their 100-day moving average resistance level early in the session but have since backed off
  • November beans traded above the 100-day moving average level for the first time since mid-January
  • Overbought Stochastics
  • Funds bought 1,000 contracts yesterday


  • July CHI up 0.02 @ 5.0125, July KC up 0.0475 @ 4.5175, July MPLS wheat up 0.03 @ 5.1625
  • U.S. and world wheat carryout increased on yesterday’s USDA report, though U.S. stocks are expected to come in at a six-year low
  • KC wheat harvest will benefit from hot and dry weather
  • CHI futures made an early test of lows from March and May but have since bounced back higher
  • KC futures also tested recent lows but are testing the 20-day moving average resistance
  • MPLS contracts are trying to stabilize after disappointing losses yesterday and are testing the 20-day moving average resistance
  • Funds sold about 5,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • June lives up 0.27 @ 97.10, August lives up 0.02 @ 96.50, October lives down 0.02 @ 99.05
  • August feeders up 0.75 @ 132.92, September feeders up 0.90 @ 134.15
  • Sell-off in boxed beef values may be slowing down
  • Very choppy and volatile cash trade this week
  • August lives tested their 10-day moving average resistance early in the session but have fallen back near the lows of the day
  • Stochastics are nearly oversold
  • August feeders have traded in a quiet range so far today centered around the 20-day moving average resistance


  • June up 0.15 @ 48.12, July down 0.25 @ 51.87, August down 0.20 @ 54.67
  • USDA increased 2020 pork production from the May report
  • Pork shipments are beginning to outpace export sales
  • Decreasing weights for 4 weeks in a row could indicate that more hogs may have been euthanized than initially expected
  • Pork values closed higher yesterday for the first time in five sessions
  • July hogs still trending lower and still oversold
  • Unsuccessful test of 10 and 20-day moving average resistance for the August contract


Sam Seid

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