CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher so far this morning with May up 2-3/4 to 3.68-1/2, Jul is up 2-1/2 to 3.71-1/4 and Dec is up 2-1/2 to 3.74-1/4. Crude oil is higher today and providing some support and the Brazilian real has also made a sizable jump today. Basis levels are still strong across the country and are being reflected in bull spreading markets. Jul corn futures traded as low as 3.66-1/2 today, but have since recovered and are trading about half way up yesterday’s range. While today’s price action does not necessarily constitute a reversal, the lack of capitulation selling today, and over the past two weeks, is impressive and makes many wonder if a lack of deliverable corn stocks is proving the support to the corn market against so many negative outside factors. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 22,000 contracts of corn yesterday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are slightly lower mid-morning in a two-way volatile session. May beans are down 2-1/4 to 8.57, Jul beans are down 1-1/2 to 8.64-1/4 and Nov beans are down a penny to 8.72. South American weather seems to have fallen to the back burner lately, though reports of hot and dry weather have caused Argentina production forecasts to decline. The Brazilian real is putting in a nice recovery bounce this morning which is supportive though yesterday’s weekly export sales total was very poor and reflective of exchange rates favoring South American export activity. Jul soybeans traded as low this morning as 8.51-3/4 and as high as 8.77-1/2. Prices are currently below their Bollinger band support levels and are oversold according to stochastics, so we could easily see a bounce from technical buying. On the other hand, the softening markets into the mid-morning is not exactly confidence-inspiring. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 12,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are a bit higher this morning trying to stabilize after recent negativity. May Chi wheat is up 2-1/4 to 5.07-3/4, May KC is up 3 to 4.35-3/4 and May spring wheat is up 3-1/2 to 5.12-1/2. The Russian ruble is trying to stabilize which is supportive for the U.S. wheat futures, though a very fast recovery in the U.S. dollar this week has limited the benefits of the stronger Russian currency. Export sales for the week ending March 5 were solid, but not enough to bring a reversal yet. May Chi wheat traded as high this morning as 5.13-3/4, but have since backed off a bit. Prices are within their Bollinger band range, but are oversold according to stochastics. May KC wheat has shown similar price action, moderately higher in the day, though still oversold technically. May spring wheat is showing the least convincing stabilization of the three wheat markets, only about half way up the day’s range. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 6,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE

Cattle markets are down hard this morning after an impressive opening higher. Apr lives are down 3.30 to 96.72, Jun was down 2.90 to 91.35 and Aug lives are down 3.10 to 90.57. Apr feeders are down 3.35 to 115.67 and May feeders are down 4.45 to 116.30. The live markets opened sharply higher this morning and finding some stabilizing action on a higher stock market. On the overnight session, Dow futures will lock at their 5% higher circuit breaker, but have since fallen off. This caused a quick wave of liquidation in the cattle markets and we are now pushing to new lows once again. Carcass values have maintained composure in the wake of a selloff which is impressive so far, though cash cattle traded in the country has fallen sharply from last week. In addition, increasing weights are already indicating that the pipeline could be backing up. Jun live cattle traded as high this morning as 97.77, but have since sold off and are testing the 90.00 level. This is a huge outside session and can lead to further downside. Apr feeders have shown similar price action, filling gaps from yesterday and selling off mid-morning.

HOGS

Hog markets are sharply lower this morning with most contracts locked at limit down prices. Apr hogs are down 4.37 to 56.47, Jun is down 4.50 to 71.30 and Jul is down 4.50 to 72.50. Carcass values and the cash index are actually maintaining decent strength lately with yesterday’s carcass close the highest since February 3. However, yesterday’s weekly export sales total was the worst of the year so far and increasing weights are adding to already heavy procution. China has not been as big of a purchaser as many were anticipating, though shipments have been strong as the country continues to manage the spread of coronavirus. Apr hogs opened above yesterday’s high, but quickly sold off in spillover pressure with the cattle. Jun and Jul have shown similar price action and are pushing to sharply new lows.

Author

Kelly Rubisch