CORN

Corn futures are choppy this morning, with Mar down 1/4 of a cent to 3.72, May down 1/4 of a cent to 3.76, and Jul unchanged at 3.79-1/2. Outside markets are mostly lower this morning, with the stock market lowered due to coronavirus fears, Brazilian real is lower, and crude oil is lower. The U.S. dollar is also down which is a bit supportive. Yesterday’s export inspection data was considered positive though corn inspections are still running 53% behind last year’s pace with the USDA expecting a 16% decrease for the year. Brazilian weather is non-threatening and Safrinha corn planting is moving on pace with the average year. Mar corn has stayed within yesterday’s range so far today, only trading as high as 3.74-3/4 and as low as 3.71-1/4. Stochastics are drifting into oversold levels and Mar is below its Bollinger Band range. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 15,000 contracts of corn yesterday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are slightly higher in two-way trade this morning, with Mar up 2-1/4 to 8.76-1/2, May up 2-1/2 to 8.85, and Jul beans up 2-1/2 to 8.96-1/2. The U.S. dollar is lower this morning and the Brazilian real may be trying to make a bottom. Chinese infection rates of coronavirus appear to be slowing, though clusters of infections across the world are growing. USDA Outlook Forum baseline estimates are supportive for new crop beans though technical indicators are still pointing lower in the near term. Mar soybeans are trading in an inside session today after yesterday’s break. Jul beans are also staying inside yesterday’s range though Jul still has a gap on the charts from mid-May that would not be filled until Jul beans trade to 8.80. Momentum indicators are pointing lower though beans are not oversold. Speculators were thought to have sold about 12,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are soft this morning, with Mar Chi wheat down 3-3/4 to 5.32-1/2, Mar KC wheat down 2-1/2 to 4.49-3/4, and Mar spring wheat down 1/4 of a cent to 5.13-3/4. Forecasts for the next two weeks in Nebraska and Kansas are showing plenty of precipitation which is bearish. Russian wheat crop estimates are still growing and European wheat exports through Sunday are running 64% ahead of last year’s pace. This is due to a weak euro and affordable export prices. U.S. wheat exports are running 10% ahead of a year ago and 1.1% behind the five-year average pace. Mar Chi wheat has fallen below its 100-day moving average level after opening back above it. Friday’s bearish key reversal has turned the trend lower, and the next downside target may be the 200-day moving average at 5.24. Mar KC wheat made its first close yesterday below its 100-day moving average since mid-December and is back below that level today. Mar KC wheat is trading at its lowest levels today since December 16. Mar spring wheat hit its lowest values today since December 10 and is oversold according to Stochastics and Bollinger Bands. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 15,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE

Cattle markets are lower this morning, with Feb lives down 1.15 to 115.85, Apr lives down 1.07 to 114.17, and Jun lives down 65 cents to 106.72. Mar feeders are down 15 cents to 135.87 and Apr feeders are down 1.32 to 136.27. The stock market opened higher this morning as many were buying the sharp drop yesterday on coronavirus uncertainty. However, stocks have fallen sharply and are now showing losses of over 400 points. This does not bode well for beef markets and cattle futures as beef is highly sensitive to economic sentiment. Yesterday’s Cold Storage report was neutral. Apr live cattle are trading at their lowest levels today since September 17. The sharp drop has left live cattle oversold according to Stochastics and Bollinger Bands, and with a gap overhead, we could see a bounce soon. Mar feeders tested their 20-day moving average resistance level this morning but have fallen back below. Momentum indicators are pointing lower though there is a gap overhead that could be filled soon on a quick bounce.

HOGS

Hog markets are mixed to slightly lower this morning, with Apr up 27 cents to 64.90, Jun hogs down 12 cents to 79.82, and Jul hogs down 20 cents to 81.07. Yesterday’s Cold Storage report was considered positive, with increases in pork inventory coming in lower than the average for the month of February. Pork values are beginning to stabilize, and though price action at these levels is choppy, the market is still expecting China pork purchases to increase in March. Apr is trading just below its 10 and 20-day moving average levels after falling below yesterday. Jun and Jul hogs have also tested nearby resistance so far this morning but have been unable to sustain price action above those levels.

Author

Carol Tillmann