TFM Mid-Day Update June 7, 2019


Corn futures are slightly lower in early trade this morning, with Jul down 3/4 of a cent to 4.19-3/4, Sep corn is down 1 cent to 4.28-1/2, and new crop Dec corn is down 1 cent to 4.37-1/2. There are various rumors circulating that the U.S. may end up taking a lighter stance on the Mexico tariff than was previously advertised. Whether that means tariffs will be delayed or not, there is a general feeling of optimism. Field work continues to progress with drying weather, and forecasts for the next five days show dryer weather in northern IL, IA, WI, MO, and MN. Yesterday’s close was technically impressive, and corn is likely finding some additional buying today on the recovery. Funds bought 23,000 contracts of corn yesterday and are thought to be net long about 15,000 contracts.


Soybean futures are moderately lower early today, though still holding some technical support levels. Jul beans are down 5 cents to 8.63-3/4, Aug beans are down 5 cents to 8.70-1/4, and Nov soybeans are down 5-1/4 cents to 8.90. Dryer weather over the next 5-7 days should help soybean planting progress move along, but wetter and colder 8-14 forecasts could delay some of the later planted fields. Producers will be working hard to get beans in before the cool and wet stress between June 14 and June 20. Yesterday’s closes were impressive, despite not showing gains. The early weakness attracted buyers and pushed prices back above the 50-day moving average support levels. Prices are so far holding those levels again today. Funds sold 2,000 contracts of beans yesterday and are thought to be net short about 108,000 contracts.


Wheat markets are mixed to mostly higher today, with Jul Chi wheat up 1/2 of a cent to 5.10-1/2, Jul KC wheat is down 1-1/4 cents to 4.54, and Jul spring wheat is up 4-1/2 cents to 5.69-1/2. Chi wheat futures were lower this morning, but have since climbed back above their 200-day moving average level after testing their 10-day moving average support level. KC wheat futures are being stopped by their overhead 100-day moving average resistance level and spring wheat contracts are extending their recent rallies to the highest prices since February. Planalytics increased their winter wheat yield estimate for the U.S. crop, but hot and dry forecasts in southwest Russia, eastern Ukraine, and the Canadian Plains are supportive. Funds bought 13,000 contracts of wheat yesterday and are thought to be net short about 27,000 contracts.


Cattle markets are mostly lower in early trade today, finding sellers tempering recent gains. Jun lives are up 27 cents to 107.87, Aug lives are down 7 cents to 104.72, and Oct lives are down 7 cents to 105.67. Aug feeders are down 1.10 to 138.17, and Sep feeders are down 92 cents to 138.67. Retail beef values have been sluggish this week and not providing much support for the cash trade. Bids in NE today are published at 114, 1.00 lower than yesterday. The best traded Aug live cattle contract has so far traded in a range of less than 1.00 and has been unable to move past its 10-day moving average resistance level. The best traded Aug feeder cattle contract opened above its 10-day moving average level, but has since fallen back below.


Hog markets are mostly lower this morning in further consolidation. Jun hogs are up 10 cents to 79.47, Jul hogs are down 1.32 to 85.02, and Aug hogs are down 1.17 to 84.45. The Jul contract is holding onto its 200-day moving average level for the ninth session in a row as prices stabilized in the mid-80s. Heavy weights are keeping short term pork supply heavy, though the export pace has been moving in a good clip. Uncertainty regarding the recent trade tensions with Mexico is not a positive sign, but markets are feeling a sense of optimism about the Mexico situation today.



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