TFM Mid-Day Update June 25, 2019


Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning, with Jul up 2-3/4 cents to 4.49-1/2, Sep is up 3-1/2 cents to 4.54-1/4, and new crop Dec is up 2-3/4 to 4.60. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report was considered supportive with U.S. corn plantings coming in at 96% complete vs 92% last week and 100% on average. Corn is rated 56% good to excellent vs the average trade estimate of 59% good to excellent, 59% last week, and 77% last year. Of the top 18 states, five states were in better shape than last year, 11 were worse, and two were unchanged. Dec corn futures were able to rally yesterday to close back above their 10-day moving average level. Prices have so far tested that level today, but are still holding. Price action has been muted, but prices have been positive all day. Funds bought about 8,000 contracts during yesterday’s session.


Soybean futures are trading slightly lower so far this morning with Jul down 2-1/4 cents to 9.06-3/4, Aug beans are down 3 cents to 9.11-3/4, and new crop Nov soybeans are down 3-1/4 cents to 9.29-1/2. The U.S. soybean crop was said to be 85% planted on yesterday’s Crop Progress report compared with the average trade estimate of 88%, 77% a year ago, and 100% last year. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent vs the average trade estimate of 59%, and 73% for this same week last year. The near term weather outlook looks warmer and dryer which should give many producers a window to finish out the majority of their soybean plantings by the time Jul arrives. Still, the late start will likely effect yields down the road and possible frost scares. Nov beans traded as high this morning as 9.41-1/4, but have since back off. Prices tested and held their 10-day moving average support levels as consolidation continues in this recent trading range. Funds were thought to have bought 8,000 contracts of beans during yesterday’s session.


Wheat markets are mixed to mostly lower this morning with Jul Chi wheat down 2 cents to 5.36, Jul KC wheat is steady at 4.65-1/2, and Jul spring wheat is up 3-3/4 to 5.47-1/4. U.S. winter wheat is said to be about 15% harvested as of yesterday’s Crop Progress report. The average trade estimate was 19% harvested, so this is deemed positive. The U.S. winter wheat crop was rated 61% good to excellent vs the average trade estimate of 63% good to excellent, and 64% a week ago. Despite forecasts for heavy rains over the weekend in KS and OK, and a hot forecast in parts of France and Germany over the next week, futures have still backed off somewhat today. Near term support levels are still being held to stay positive. Funds bought about 7,000 contracts of Chi wheat during yesterday’s session.


Cattle markets are mixed this morning with Jun lives up 52 cents to 107.45, Aug lives are up 17 cents to 102.60, and Oct lives are up 22 cents to 104.25. Aug feeders are down 30 cents to 131.47, and Sep feeders are down 40 cents to 131.95. Similar to Monday’s session, today’s has been choppy and without much direction. The hog markets are not acting as an anchor today and the lack of a break to new lows can be seen as technically supportive. If prices can’t continue to stabilize, buyers may reenter the market, especially if retail demand begins to pick up.


Hog markets are higher this morning with Jul up 1.67 to 74.52, Aug is up 1.55 to 75.77, and Oct is up 97 cents to 70.02. Yesterday’s session was extremely disappointing with a sharp break to new lows for the move. Though prices are up today, they have not put in a reversal signal and heavy pork supplies are bearish. The best traded Aug contract is trading near the highs of the day, but is still less than halfway up yesterday’s trading range. Open interest is increasing which is suggesting that new shorts have entered the market.



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