TFM Mid-Day Update June 17, 2019


Corn futures are mixed this morning, with Jul down 1-1/2 to 4.51-1/2, Sep is down 1/2 cent to 4.57-3/4, and new crop Dec corn is up a penny to 4.64-1/2. Heavy rains in IN, IL, and OH over the weekend kept planting progress to a minimum. Most are expecting planting progress to come in between 89% and 92% on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. This will still leave 7.4 to 10.2 million acres left to plant as of the third week of June. Despite the positive weather over the weekend, corn prices are choppy today, likely filling gaps created by the gap higher overnight. In addition, corn prices are likely overbought in the short term and could use a bit of a correction. For the week ending June 13, the U.S. shipped 654,000 tons of corn vs 852,000 tons the previous week and 1.68 million tons the same week last year. Corn shipments for this marketing year are running almost 2 million metric tonnes behind last year’s pace. Funds bought 42,000 contracts of corn on Friday and are thought to be net long about 189,000 contracts.


Soybean futures are higher this morning, trading above their 200-day moving average levels for the first time since early April. Jul beans are up 10-1/2 cents to 9.07-1/4, Aug beans are up 11 to 9.14, and new crop Nov soybeans are up 10-3/4 to 9.34-1/4. Heavy rains in some areas over the weekend kept soybean plantings behind, and the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are both showing above normal precipitation. It is looking increasingly likely that a good portion of soybean acres may not get planted this year. Nov beans had their highest close on Friday since April 15 and their first close above the 200-day moving average since early April. Today, the front month contracts gapped higher and are now trading above their 200-day moving average levels. The U.S. shipped 675,000 tons of beans for the week ending June 13 vs 734,000 tons the previous week and 819,000 tons the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are running almost 13 million tons behind last year’s pace. Funds sold about 9,000 contracts of soybeans Friday and are thought to be net short about 98,000 contracts.


Wheat markets are mixed to mostly lower this morning, with Jul Chi wheat down 1/4 cent to 5.38-1/4, Jul KC wheat is up 1/4 cent to 4.76-1/2, and Jul Mpls wheat is down 1-3/4 cents to 5.61-1/2. Excessive moisture in the winter wheat growing areas are keeping the wheat futures somewhat supported, though overflow pressure from the corn, as well as an overbought technical picture, are likely keeping a lid on prices moving too much higher at this time. The market is expecting winter wheat quality to drop a bit on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report. The U.S. shipped 375,000 tons of wheat for the week ending June 13 vs 476,000 tons last week and 374,000 tons the same week last year. Wheat shipments are running about 3,000 tons ahead of last year’s pace. Funds bought about 4,000 contracts of Chi wheat on Friday and are thought to be net long about 14,000 contracts.


Cattle markets are higher this morning, with Jun lives up 40 cents to 109.17, Aug lives are up 1.35 to 105.62, and Oct lives are up 1.17 to 106.65. Aug feeders are up 12 cents to 135.65 and Sep feeders are steady at 135.80. Cash trade late last week was very disappointing, and along with the lack of retail demand, long liquidation has continued. The best traded Aug live cattle contract is currently testing its 20-day moving average resistance level. It closed above with a positive technical signal, but if prices cannot break through, it only adds to the bearish technical setup with the current bear-flag pattern. Aug feeders are attempting to limit recent losses as well. Prices are oversold, but overhead resistance has been staunch.


Hog markets are moderately higher so far today, with Jul up 1.00 to 82.35, Aug is up 90 cents to 81.52, and Oct hogs are up 1.20 to 76.30. Hog markets are finding support from rallying China cash hog values and an oversold technical condition, but last week’s domestic pork production was enormous, up 9.9% from last year and up 12.3% from the previous week. Friday’s reversals have not been taken out and near-term direction still looks lower.



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