TFM Mid-Day Update June 13, 2019


Corn futures are moderately higher today with the deferred contracts punching into new highs. Jul corn is up 9-1/4 cents to 4.39-1/4, Sep corn is up 7 cents to 4.45-1/4, and new crop Dec corn is up 5-1/4 cents to 4.53-3/4. There is still much debate as to what the final planted acreage number could be. Given active plantings in IN and IL over the past 10 days, a previous estimate of 10 million preventive plant acres seems a bit much, but the USDA’s 3 million acre drop still seems conservative at this time. There is also talk of over 1 million flooded acres across parts of NE, KS, MO, and IA. Jul corn traded as high this morning as 4.42-3/4 but has yet to break through the contract high of 4.45. Meanwhile, the Dec contract traded as high as 4.56-3/4, breaking through the highs made on May 29. U.S. sold 168,500 tons of corn for the week ending June 6, up sharply from last week but down 64% from the previous 4-week average. Funds bought 16,000 contracts of corn yesterday and are thought to be net long about 109,000 contracts.


Soybean futures are trading moderately higher today, with Jul up 5-1/2 cents to 8.83-1/2, Sep is up 6 cents to 8.97-3/4, and new crop Nov soybeans are up 5-1/4 to 9.10-3/4. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are showing below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, leading many to believe that soybean acreage could be pulled lower as well. Others are still expecting soybeans to pick up some of the lost acres from corn. The Nov contract traded as high today as 9.14-3/4, just a few ticks away from its 100-day moving average level. That 100-day moving average level served as stiff resistance on June 4 when beans opened sharply higher then reversed lower to spark the recent downtrend. The U.S. sold 256,000 tons of beans for the week ending June 6, down 50% from last week and down 44% from the previous 4-week average. Funds bought 15,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday and are thought to be net short about 99,000 contracts.


Wheat markets are mixed to mostly higher with the Chi contracts leading the way once again. Jul Chi wheat is up 3-3/4 cents to 5.30, Jul KC wheat is up 2 cents to 4.64-3/4, and Jul spring wheat is up 1/2 cent to 5.65-1/4. Cold and wet forecasts will not be beneficial to the wheat crop, but conditions have been improving lately so it is unclear to what degree this will affect yields. Stressful weather in other parts of the world is supportive. The U.S. sold 47,600 metric tonnes of wheat for the 2019 marketing year this past week. This was the first week of the new crop marketing year for wheat. Funds bought 9,000 contracts of Chi wheat on Wednesday and are thought to be net long about 2,000 contracts.


Cattle markets are lower today in some follow-through selling action. Jun lives are down 67 cents to 108.97, Aug lives are down 47 cents to 104.72, and Oct lives are down 50 cents to 105.87. Aug feeders are down 1.47 to 136.32 and Sep feeders are down 1.50 to 136.50. The best traded Aug live cattle contract traded as low this morning as 103.72 but has since bounced back above its 10-day moving average level. Cash cattle trade was very light yesterday with a few head sold in KS at $110-$113 and a few in NE at $114. Long liquidation is still the theme with open interest at its lowest levels of the year.


Hog markets are mixed so far this morning, with Jun up 17 cents to 79.20, Jul down 15 cents to 84.22, and Aug up 90 cents to 83.42. Hog markets are oversold technically, but with the lower trend in the cash and pork markets, prices will likely continue to drift.



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