TFM Midday Update 7-2-20

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Friday, July 3, 2020 in observance of Independence Day

CORN

July down 0.03 @ 3.4525, September down 0.0325 @ 3.47, December down 0.035 @ 3.5675
Forecasts for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days are showing below-normal rains and high temps for most of the corn belt
Corn prices should be increasingly sensitive to weather given lower acres reported this week
China has purchased at least 10 cargoes over the past two weeks after issuing more export quotas
US sold 361,000 tonnes of corn for the week ending June 25, down 22% from the previous week and down 32% from the previous 4-week average
Profit taking today after big bounces from last Friday’s closes
December corn closed above the upper Bollinger Band resistance level yesterday and has corrected back below this morning
Funds bought about 35,000 contracts yesterday

July down 0.015 @ 8.9225, August down 0.005 @ 8.91, November down 0.01 @ 8.98
Heat in forecasts is not overly supportive for beans though a lack of precipitation seen for the next two weeks is bullish
Daily crush pace in May hit new record of 5.79mbu, beating the record of 5.56mbu in 2018
US sold 241,700 tonnes (marketing year low) of beans for the week ending June 25, down 60% from the previous week and down 63% from the previous 4-week average
November beans are overbought according to stochastics and Bollinger Bands
Light selling pressure today has not pulled prices back into Bollinger Band range
Gap from early March at 9.035 has still not been totally filled
Funds bought about 11,000 contracts yesterday

Dec CHI down 0.06 @ 4.9975, Dec KC down 0.08 @ 4.47, Dec MPLS down 0.035 @ 5.2675
European and Russian weather looks nonthreatening as harvest ramps up
The US dollar and Russian ruble are both higher this morning
US sold 414,300 tonnes of wheat for the week ending June 25
CHI wheat tested the 20-day moving average for the second session in a row this morning and has since pulled back
KC futures have fallen back below the 10-day moving average support
MPLS futures are trading within their second inside-session in a row
Funds bought about 6,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

August lives up 1.47 @ 98.77, October lives up 1.40 @ 102.07, December lives up 1.02 @ 105.52
August feeders up 1.32 @ 134.40, September feeders up 1.65 @ 135.67
Cash cattle markets are quiet, beef values are still falling lower
Surge in virus cases may slow the reopening of restaurants
Beef demand has likely peaked seasonally
August lives are surging off yesterday’s strong close and trading at highest levels since June 2
Possible breakout to the upside
August feeders are trading back above their 100-day moving average resistance but charts don’t look quite as strong as the lives

July down 0.02 @ 44.77, August up 0.12 @ 49.15, October down 0.37 @ 47.90
Pork values are still choppy and trying to stabilize
Cash hog Index is slightly higher
Weights are down for the seventh week in a row and slaughter is still lower than the same week last year
August hogs are still trading within Wednesday’s range
Gap from last week has still not been filled
Oversold stochastics

Sam Seid