TFM Midday Update 6-25-20

CORN

July down 0.08 @ 3.16, September down 0.085 @ 3.185, Dec down 0.0875 @ 3.2525
Weather over the next two weeks looks hot and wet which could boost yields
Oil futures are higher
Expectations for lower planted acreage on next week’s report as well as lower than year-ago stocks
US sold 461,700 tonnes of corn for the week ending June 18, up 29% from last week but down 11% from previous 4-week average
July corn is trading sharply below the 50-day moving average at its lowest prices since May 12
Trend appears to be rolling over

July down 0.075 @ 8.6325, August down 0.0725 @ 8.6025, November down 0.085 @ 8.6175
Greenhouse-like weather forecasts for the next two weeks
US dollar is higher, Brazilian real choppy
China trade uncertainty
US sold 601,900 tonnes of soybeans for the week ending June 18, up 12% from last week but down 10% from the previous 4-week average
July beans are trading below the 20-day moving average support level for the first time since June 2
Closes at these levels could turn trend lower

July CHI up 0.045 @ 4.8575, July KC down 0.01 @ 4.3025, July MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.1325
Mixed reports regarding early winter wheat harvest
Improving spring wheat conditions due to recent rains
Lowest Paris wheat futures since March
Higher Russian ruble helping to provide some support
US sold 518,700 tonnes of wheat for the week ending June 18
CHI and KC futures are still consolidating within recent ranges, CHI made an unsuccessful test of 10-day moving average resistance
MPLS futures tested and held lower Bollinger Band as support

June lives up 1.02 @ 94.32, August lives up 0.25 @ 96.60, October lives up 0.35 @ 99.97
August feeders up 1.25, September feeders up 0.90 @ 135.07
Cash cattle and beef values are still sliding lower
Restaurants reopening could help to improve demand
USDA and FDA indicated that there is no evidence that Covid can be transmitted through food or food packaging
August lives are still consolidating between the 50-day moving average support and the 100-day moving average resistance
August feeders are trading above the 100-day moving average resistance but still in an inside session

July up 0.67 @ 46.60, August up 0.17 @ 51.42, October up 0.20 @ 50.42
Cash index slightly lower
Sharp jump in pork values so far this week
Slaughter lagging behind last week will keep pressuring the cash Index but will also help keep pork inventories from becoming too burdensome
Weights are down for the sixth week in a row
August hogs are still sharply oversold

Sam Seid