TFM Midday Update 6-19-20

CORN

July up 0.0175 @ 3.3275, September up 0.0125 @ 3.3675, December up 0.015 @ 3.4425
Widespread rains expected across most the Corn Belt this weekend
China corn prices are at highest levels since 2015 even as China has released large quantities from state reserves
Rumors yesterday that China buyers were inquiring about US ethanol
July tested 10 and 20-day moving average support levels early in the session but have found solid buyers on the dip
Higher trend is still intact, and closes at these levels would look impressive going into the weekend
Funds bought about 1,000 contracts yesterday

July up 0.05 @ 8.78, August up 0.055 @ 8.78, November up 0.0575 @ 8.8175
China plans to accelerate purchases of US farm products
Surge in palm oil prices lately
China has been probing for US soybean prices
July made first close above the 100-day moving average resistance level yesterday since January 17
Early test this morning of the 100-day moving average as support
Overbought stochastics
Funds bought about 2,000 contracts yesterday

July CHI down 0.0375 @ 4.7975, July KC up 0.0075 @ 4.2925, July MPLS down 0.0275 @ 5.22
Solid harvest progress for winter wheat
Hot and dry conditions in Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota may further stress spring wheat crop
Many of the spring wheat growing areas could miss rains this weekend
CHI futures still extending downtrend despite oversold technicals
KC futures trying to consolidate near March lows
MPLS futures are choppy after a solid jump yesterday
Funds sold 4,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

June lives down 0.55 @ 95.52, August lives down 0.17 @ 95.92, October lives down 0.17 @ 99.22
August feeders up 0.20 @ 133.17, September down 0.15 @ 134.10
Beef prices falling quickly
Cash cattle markets are drifting lower so far this week
Cattle on Feed report this afternoon expected to show On-Feed supply @ 98.7%
Very quiet price action ahead of today’s CoF report
Live and feeder markets are still within recent consolidation ranges and have not broken nearby support or resistance

July down 1.10 @ 48.85, August up 0.07 @ 53.55, October up 0.32 @ 51.50
Pork values stabilization, but cash Index still trending lower
China is expected to ramp up purchases of US farm products soon, and pork could be a major target
Dropping average carcass weights
July hogs trading with moderate losses though still within the trading range for the past few days
August and October have stayed within choppy, quiet ranges so far this morning

Sam Seid