TFM Midday Update 6-11-20

CORN

July up 0.04 @ 3.3025, September up 0.0375 @ 3.355, December up 0.0275 @ 3.4425
Hot forecasts for the next two weeks with spotty moisture
China sold 4mmt out of state reserves this week
Stronger than expected ethanol production this week and lower than expected ethanol stocks
July futures are back above the 10-day moving average level after testing support at the 20 and 50-day moving average levels
Higher trend is still intact
Funds sold about 8,000 contracts yesterday

July down 0.0075 @ 8.6475, August down 0.0125 @ 8.665, November down 0.0175 @ 8.7525
Warm and mostly dry forecasts could support into the end of June
Rumors of China buying 3 cargoes of US beans overnight, though no confirmation from USDA Flash Sales announcement
Lower Brazilian real and higher US dollar are supportive
July beans have been choppy so far today without much direction
Possibly bull-pennant continuation pattern
Stochastics are nearly overbought
Funds bought about 1,000 contracts of corn yesterday

July CHI wheat down 0.02 @ 5.0425, July KC wheat down 0.0575 @ 4.5175, July MPLS wheat down 0.035 @ 5.16
Dry weather will speed up spring wheat plantings in North Dakota and speed up HRW harvest in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas
US dollar is lower today, but the Russian ruble looks toppy, and may further correct lower
Uncertainty regarding the quality of incoming European and Black Sea crops
CHI futures are making a bearish outside session after early test of resistance
KC futures fell through the 20-day moving average support level
Spring wheat futures are also below the 20-day moving average support level and are trading at lowest levels since June 1
Funds bought about 1,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

June lives up 0.70 @ 97.30, August lives down 0.17 @ 96.30, October lives down 0.52 @ 98.87
August feeders down 1.85 @ 130.82, September feeders down 2.00 @ 132.15
Choppy cash cattle trade so far this week from 98.00-108.00
Choice beef values are still falling quickly
Increasing slaughter and heavy weights will continue to add to beef inventory in the summer months
August lives are still range bound, and held the lower Bollinger Band level as support early in the session
Nearly oversold stochastics
August feeders have broken below the recent trading range

June up 0.15 @ 48.00, July down 0.57 @ 52.22, August down 1.12 @ 54.70
Cash hog markets are still trending lower
Pork values have been choppy to lower
Hog slaughter drawing very close to year-ago levels
China spot pig prices are up over 2% for the week so far
July futures are still deeply oversold though the trend lower is still intact
August hogs are trading below their 10 and 20-day moving average support levels and a close below both would be the first since June 3

Sam Seid