CORN
Corn futures look soft headed into today’s USDA WASDE report. May, July and Dec corn are all down 0.03 to 3.155, 3.155 and 3.3175 respectively. CONAB increased their estimate for Brazil’s corn production yesterday, and expectations of very heavy US corn carryout projections for the 2020 crop are also weighing on futures prices. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 67% of the US corn crop was planted vs expectations of 71% and last year’s progress at this time of 56%. July corn has fallen back below its 10-day moving average support level after three consecutive closes above it. Unless we get a positive report today, the technical break could turn the trend back lower. Funds were thought to have sold about 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are down slightly ahead of this morning’s Supply and Demand report. May beans are down 0.045 to 8.4775, July is down 0.0275 to 8.5225 and Nov beans are down 0.025 to 8.5275. CONAB lowered Brazil’s production for this year, and despite a lower Brazilian real, Chinese buyers have been active buyers of US soybeans. July soybeans are still trading within yesterday’s range as traders await the latest USDA data set. Estimates for new crop carryout are very wide which creates the potential for a volatile afternoon, but for now, price action is quiet. Funds were thought to have bought about 5,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.
WHEAT
Wheat markets are moderately lower this morning, with July CHI wheat down 0.0375 to 5.135, July KC wheat is down 0.03 to 4.72 and July MPLS Wheat is down 0.01 to 5.1775. Winter wheat conditions got a bit worse on yesterday’s Crop Progress report, but forecasts look relatively benign for the next two weeks. Warming temperatures will help. The US Dollar is lower and the Russian ruble is lower this morning which is helping to ease some selling pressure. Spring wheat futures are correcting a bit from their recent bounce, KC wheat futures are drifting towards the low end of their consolidation range, and CHI futures are trading at their lowest prices in a week. Winter wheat prices look vulnerable to more downside as we draw closer to harvest.
CATTLE
Cattle markets are showing decent gains so far today, with June lives up 2.47 to 95.15, August lives are up 1.40 to 98.60 and Oct lives are up 0.27 to 101.55. May feeders are up 1.32 to 124.97 and August feeders are up 0.75 to 133.42. Cash cattle trade in the country came in a bit lower than expected, but given spotty packer capacity across the country, cash market direction will likely stay choppy to higher. Record high beef values should keep demand for slaughter supplies on the upswing as long as plants can stay open. Cattle futures are still overbought, but the bounce today seems to indicate a that there is not a huge sense of urgency to take off long positions. June live cattle are once again trading above their Bollinger Band resistance level and stochastics are overbought. Feeder prices have corrected out of overbought levels and are a bit more quiet so far today.
HOGS
Cattle markets are showing decent gains so far today, with June lives up 2.47 to 95.15, August lives are up 1.40 to 98.60 and Oct lives are up 0.27 to 101.55. May feeders are up 1.32 to 124.97 and August feeders are up 0.75 to 133.42. Cash cattle trade in the country came in a bit lower than expected, but given spotty packer capacity across the country, cash market direction will likely stay choppy to higher. Record high beef values should keep demand for slaughter supplies on the upswing as long as plants can stay open. Cattle futures are still overbought, but the bounce today seems to indicate a that there is not a huge sense of urgency to take off long positions. June live cattle are once again trading above their Bollinger Band resistance level and stochastics are overbought. Feeder prices have corrected out of overbought levels and are a bit more quiet so far today.
Author
Kelly Rubisch