CORN
Corn markets found a mid-morning bounce and are currently trading with 0.055 gains. May is trading at 3.4025, Jul at 3.4425 and Dec at 3.5275. President Trump tweeted this morning that he spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia regarding oil price. Trump expects and hopes that production will be cut back by approximately 10m barrels. Crude oil futures quickly jumped 6.00, and if the energy bounce continues, corn futures should follow. However, the difference in ethanol profitability when oil is 20.00 vs 26.00 is unlikely to restart demand in a meaningful way. July corn made new contract lows this morning at 3.375 and traded as high as 3.4675. The U.S. sold 1.08m tonnes of corn for the week ending March 26, down 41% from the previous week and down 13% from the previous 4-week average. Funds were thought to have sold about 30,000 contracts of corn yesterday.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures are slightly higher this morning in some rather impressive stabilization given the technical setup. May beans are up 0.0375 to 8.6625, July beans are up 0.0375 to 8.71 and Nov beans are up 0.04 to 8.675. While many long-term fundamentals look supportive for soybeans, there are reports that Argentina port facilities are beginning to return to full operations is a short-term negative force. The Brazilian real is still pushing to new lows and the US dollar has rallied the past few sessions. Pressure in soybean products and palm oil prices are also bearish, in addition to a risk-off attitude across many markets. July soybeans closed yesterday below their 10 and 20-day moving average support levels, a negative technical development. Prices have bounced back about the 20-day this morning which could stem further losses. The US sold 957,000 tonnes of soybeans for the week ending March 26, up 6% from last week and up 75% from the previous 4-week average. Funds were thought to have sold about 15,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday,
WHEAT
Wheat markets have not found any overflow support from other grains so far this morning. May CHI wheat is down 0.0575 to 5.445, May KC wheat is down 0.075 to 4.675 and May MPLS wheat is down 0.045 to 5.20. While the demand for wheat inventories is still high, Egypt cancelled a tender yesterday which may signal that current inventories are satisfactory. Currency moves have worked against US wheat futures in recent sessions, though the Russian ruble is testing the upper end of its current range so far this morning. July CHI futures have fallen below nearby support at the 50 and 100-day moving average levels. KC contracts tested support at the 20 and 200-day movning average levels while July MPLS wheat has fallen below its 20-day moving average support. The US sold about 73,000 tonens of wheat for the week ending March 26, a marketing year low. This total was down 90% from last week and down 86% from the previous 4-week average. Funds were thought to have sold about 12,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday.
CATTLE
Cattle markets are down hard this morning, with April lives down 4.32 to 93.00, June lives are down 3.80 to 83.77 and August lives are down 3.55 to 85.42. May feeders are down 3.05 to 112.35 and August feeders are down 6.62 to 117.75. Cash markets have already fallen nearly 10.00 from last weeks highs and beef values are collapsing as well. Inventories of fresh beef are overwhelming the sharply reduced consumer demand lately. June live cattle have moved to new lows today while May feeders are still trading about 2.00 above contract lows. Technicals are sharply oversold though new buys are hard to find when volatility is so high.
HOGS
Hog markets are sharply lower again this morning, with April down 3.40 to 45.80, June is down 4.50 to 52.82 and July hogs are down 4.50 to 57.22. Pork values are collapsing due to extremely high production totals coupled with sharply reduced demand. If slaughter were to slow down, animals would back up in the country, forcing heavier production down the road. China has reported more cases of African Swine Fever after coronavirus roadblocks were recently lifted. Front month hogs are trading at their lowest levels since 2016.
Author
Kelly Rubisch