CORN

Corn futures are trading moderately lower today, falling back below nearby support and are moving back toward the low end of their recent trading range. Mar futures are down 3-1/2 cents to 3.79-1/2, May is down 3-1/4 to 3.84-1/4 and Jul is down 3 cents to 3.87-1/2. Cash markets are still strong, though markets are not showing any of the bull spreading that has characterized trade lately. China is expected to be a buyer of U.S. corn moving forward, though the spread of coronavirus adds an element of uncertainty. Corn markets were able to find some buying support from the wheat markets yesterday, but wheat is sliding lower today. Mar futures closed above their 10 and 20-day moving average levels yesterday for the first time since January 23 but have fallen back below both of those support levels this morning. Corn is still stuck firmly within its recent range, and Mar futures have traded at 3.81 for 14 sessions in a row. Speculative funds were thought to have bought about 15,000 contracts of corn yesterday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are sliding a bit lower today, with Mar down 3-1/4 to 8.89. May is down 4-1/4 to 8.98, and Jul beans are down 4-3/4 to 9.09-1/4. Yesterday’s session was a bit disappointing. News that China would be issuing tariff waivers at the beginning of March was very positive, and January’s crush was an all-time record. Still, prices were unable to push through nearby resistance in sympathy with the other grain markets. Today, soybean futures have fallen through nearby support in a negative looking day. Mar beans traded at their lowest levels since February 12 and have since corrected back above their 10 and 20-day moving average support levels. Momentum indicators are pointing sideways to lower. Speculative funds were thought to have sold about 7,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are correcting from yesterday’s sharp jump with some pressure this morning. Mar Chi wheat is down 9-1/2 cents to 5.57-1/4, Mar KC wheat is down 9-3/4 to 4.76 and Mar spring wheat is down 9-1/4 to 5.30-3/4. The major reasons for yesterday’s jump in price were attributed to a lower estimate for the Australian wheat crop, as well as reports that locusts could migrate from Africa into Pakistan and India. While these are still true, some of the enthusiasm may be dampened by Russian crop projections that are 6% higher than last year. This more than makes up for the drop in Australian production from last year. Most winter wheat areas in the Midwest have beneficial soil conditions, and forecasts look non-threatening. Mar Chi wheat has fallen back below its 20-day moving average level but has tested its 10 and 50-day moving average levels. Mar KC wheat tested and held its 10, 20 and 50-day moving average support levels, and Mar spring wheat fell back below its 10 and 20-day moving average levels. Speculative funds were thought to have bought about 14,000 contracts of Chi wheat yesterday.

CATTLE

Cattle markets are mixed to mostly higher this morning with Feb lives down 22 cents to 120.20. Apr lives are up 2 cents to 120.62, and Jun lives are up 2 cents to 112.22. Mar feeders are up 90 cents to 140.20, and Apr feeders are up 47 cents to 142.25. Chinese purchases of U.S. ag goods now count toward phase 1 commitments, though tariffs will not be issued until the beginning of March. Beef values continued their fall yesterday, and cash markets are weak. Technical price action yesterday was relatively strong given the bearish fundamental tilt, and prices have so far not broken today. Apr lives are currently testing their 20-day moving average resistance level, and a close above would be the first since January 15. Mar feeders are trading at the highs of the day and at their highest level since January 24. Next resistance comes in at about 141.65. Stochastics may be creeping into overbought territory.

HOGS

Hog markets are sharply higher this morning, finding buyers after a solid jump in pork prices yesterday. Apr hogs are up 2.60 to 68.10, Jun hogs are up 2.67 to 84.05 and Jul hogs are up 2.45 to 84.97. Traders are still hopeful that China will begin to make even larger purchases of U.S. pork products once tariff waivers become available at the beginning of March. Though cash hogs are still under pressure in the U.S., carcass cutout values made their single biggest day jump since mid November yesterday afternoon. Apr hogs are trading above their 20-day moving average resistance level and are at their highest price currently since January 29. If Apr can trade through 68.67, that would fill the gap from January 30. There is still a gap to fill from January 24 at 72.82.

Author

Lisa Heder